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Exchange rate evidence on the effectiveness of United Nations policy

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  • Russell Sobel

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of international interventions through their impact on exchange rates. If a specific intervention actually increases (decreases) a country's economic and political stability, then its currency should appreciate (depreciate). Estimates suggest that peacekeeping forces in Lebanon caused long-run appreciations, while economic sanctions imposed upon South Africa only caused temporary depreciations. In both cases, repeated U.N. resolutions condemning or demanding actions, that were not backed by actual interventions, did not cause changes in the exchange rate. The results in this paper are supportive of predictions from the public choice approach applied to international organizations and policies. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1004971230542
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 95 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 1-25

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:95:y:1998:i:1:p:1-25

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

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  1. William H. Kaempfer & Michael H. Moffett, 1988. "Impact Of Anti-Apartheid Sanctions On South Africa: Some Trade And Financial Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 6(4), pages 118-129, October.
  2. Kaemfer, William H & Lowenberg, Anton D, 1988. "The Theory of International Economic Sanctions: A Public Choice Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 786-93, September.
  3. Kaempfer, William H. & Lehman, James A. & Lowenberg, Anton D., 1987. "Divestment, investment sanctions, and disinvestment: an evaluation of anti-apartheid policy instruments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(03), pages 457-473, June.
  4. Garry J. Schinasi & P.A.V.B. Swamy, 1987. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change," International Finance Discussion Papers 301, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Time-Varying Parameters and the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 87-97, January.
  6. Kaempfer, William H & Lowenberg, Anton D, 1986. "A Model of the Political Economy of International Investment Sanctions: The Case of South Africa," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 377-96.
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Cited by:
  1. Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, . "History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II," IEW - Working Papers 002, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  2. Coyne, Christopher J. & Dempster, Gregory M. & Isaacs, Justin P., 2010. "Asset values and the sustainability of peace prospects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 146-156, May.
  3. Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "World War II as reflected on capital markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 187-191, November.
  4. Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, 1999. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War II," CESifo Working Paper Series 221, CESifo Group Munich.

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