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How Government Bond Prices Reflect Wartime Events - The Case of the Stockholm Market

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Author Info
Daniel Waldenström
Bruno S. Frey

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Abstract

How are political events reflected in financial asset prices? Break points in sovereign debt prices are analyzed for Denmark, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Germany and Belgium during 1930-1948, using unique data from the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Unlike in countries involved in WWII, this market was unregulated. The outbreak of World War II heavily depressed prices of government bonds. Countries which were occupied (Belgium, Denmark and Norway) or under attack (Finland) saw their debt depreciate substantially. The battle of Stalingrad turns out indeed to be a turning-point of the war. This approach represents a complementary quantitative method to analyze the impact of political events.

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Paper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW in its series IEW - Working Papers with number iewwp102.

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Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:102

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Related research
Keywords: Financial Markets; Economic History; WWII; Europe; Cliometrics;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-
N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman & Yishay Yafeh, 2002. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then Versus Now," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 695-733, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 39-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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    • Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 225-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  5. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  6. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2003. "What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," NBER Working Papers 9587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Oosterlinck Kim, 2004. "Why Do Investors Still Hope? The Soviet Repudiation Puzzle (1918- 1919)," Economic History 0409002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kim Oosterlinck, 2004. "Market microstructure and Nazi influence on the Paris stock exchange during WWII," Working Papers CEB 04-026.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-17.

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