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Using Financial Markets to Analyze History: The Case of the Second World War

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  • Bruno S. Frey
  • Daniel Waldenstrom

Abstract

A central aspect of historical research is to provide explanations for the causes and effects of events that occurred in the past, in particular the Second World War. History can be analyzed and explained from different perspectives. Two such perspectives are considered, the first being the traditional historiographic approach, in which the main emphasis is on the qualitative analysis of various kinds of historical sources and documents, and the second being what we call the financial market approach, a recent methodology for linking significant changes in historical market prices to simultaneously occurring geopolitical events. The fundamental characteristics of the two approaches are identified and compared in answering some important historical questions concerning the Second World War. The financial market approach, as reflected in the secondary market for government bonds, is studied for various countries. Both approaches rely heavily on interpretation ? but in different ways. They complement each other in a useful way.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno S. Frey & Daniel Waldenstrom, 2007. "Using Financial Markets to Analyze History: The Case of the Second World War," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-19, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    • Handle: RePEc:cra:wpaper:2007-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephanie Collet & Kim Oosterlinck, 2019. "Denouncing Odious Debts," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 205-223, November.
    2. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Jacques-Marie Vaslin, 2014. "Baring, Wellington and the resurrection of French public finances following Waterloo," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 74(4), pages 1072-1102, November.
    3. Xavier De Scheemaekere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2014. "Issues in Identifying Economic Crises: Insights from History," Working Papers CEB 14-014, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Weber Ernst Juerg, 2010. "The Role of the Real Interest Rate in U.S. Macroeconomic History," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, April.
    5. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Jacques-Marie Vaslin, 2013. "Waterloo: a Godsend for French Public Finances?," Working Papers 0041, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    6. Xavier De Scheemaekere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2012. "Addressing Economic Crises: The Reference-Class Problem," Working Papers CEB 12-024, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Oosterlinck, Kim & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Vaslin, Jacques-Marie, 2019. "Aristocratic Privilege. Exploiting “Good†Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14071, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; government bonds; history; World War II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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