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Modeling Optimism and Pessimism in the Foreign Exchange Market

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  • Paul De Grauwe
  • Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser

Abstract

In this paper we model how the existence of different beliefs about the underlying fundamental value of a currency affects the dynamics of the exchange rate. We find that a divergence of beliefs creates the potential for waves of optimism and pessimism that alternate in an unpredictable way. These waves are disconnected from the underlying (objective) fundamental value. We also find that in such a world there is "sensitivity to initial conditions", i.e. small changes in beliefs can fundamentally alter the time path of the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul De Grauwe & Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser, 2007. "Modeling Optimism and Pessimism in the Foreign Exchange Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 1962, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1962
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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Luisa Corrado & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007. "Bulls, bears and excess volatility: can currency intervention help?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 261-272.
    3. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
    4. Ahmad Naimzada & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2006. "Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and Imitative Processes," Working Papers 104, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
    5. Amegashie, J. Atsu & Ouattara, Bazoumanna & Strobl, Eric, 2007. "Moral Hazard and the Composition of Transfers: Theory with an Application to Foreign Aid," MPRA Paper 3158, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 May 2007.
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Wolff, Christian & Verschoor, Willem F C & Jongen, Ron & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
    9. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2014. "Real and financial interacting oscillators: a behavioral macro-model with animal spirits," Working Papers 268, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.

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