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Modeling Optimism and Pessimism in the Foreign Exchange Market Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Paul De Grauwe ()
Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser ()
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In this paper we model how the existence of different beliefs about the underlying fundamental value of a currency affects the dynamics of the exchange rate. We find that a divergence of beliefs creates the potential for waves of optimism and pessimism that alternate in an unpredictable way. These waves are disconnected from the underlying (objective) fundamental value. We also find that in such a world there is "sensitivity to initial conditions", i.e. small changes in beliefs can fundamentally alter the time path of the exchange rate.
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number
CESifo Working Paper No. 1962.
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Date of creation: 2007Date of revision:
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Keywords: Find related papers by JEL classification: C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computational Techniques G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004.
"The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited ,"
NBER Working Papers
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[Downloadable!] Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2005.
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CEPR Discussion Papers
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"The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited ,"
Proceedings ,
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"The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited ,"
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Other versions: Alan Kirman & Gilles Teyssière, 2002.
"Microeconomic Models for Long Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series ,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics ,
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Alan P. Kirman, Gilles Teyssiere, 2001.
"Microeconomic Models for Long-Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2001
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KIRMAN, Alan & TEYSSIéRE, Gilles, 2002.
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CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001
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Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002.
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Journal of Political Economy ,
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Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999.
"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics ,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
[Downloadable!] Martin Evans & Richard Lyons, 1999.
"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics ,"
Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series
1007, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics ,"
NBER Working Papers
7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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"Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market ,"
Discussion Paper Serie B
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repec:att:wimass:199530 is not listed on IDEAS
Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2005.
"Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets ,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2002.
"Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets ,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2002,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
[Downloadable!] Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2003.
"Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets ,"
Economics Working Papers
2003,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Ricardo Hausmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006.
"Why the US Current Account Deficit is Sustainable ,"
International Finance ,
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William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995.
"Rational Routes to Randomness ,"
Working Papers
95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992.
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Journal of International Money and Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
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Cars H. Hommes, 2005.
"Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance ,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
05-056/1, Tinbergen Institute.
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Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008.
"Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Luisa Corrado & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007.
"Bulls, bears and excess volatility: can currency intervention help? ,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 261-272.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
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