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Modeling Optimism and Pessimism in the Foreign Exchange Market

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Author Info
Paul De Grauwe ()
Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser ()

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Abstract

In this paper we model how the existence of different beliefs about the underlying fundamental value of a currency affects the dynamics of the exchange rate. We find that a divergence of beliefs creates the potential for waves of optimism and pessimism that alternate in an unpredictable way. These waves are disconnected from the underlying (objective) fundamental value. We also find that in such a world there is "sensitivity to initial conditions", i.e. small changes in beliefs can fundamentally alter the time path of the exchange rate.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1962.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1962

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computational Techniques
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
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  3. repec:att:wimass:19956 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Kahneman, Daniel & Knetsch, Jack L & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias: Anomalies," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-206, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Luisa Corrado & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007. "Bulls, bears and excess volatility: can currency intervention help?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 261-272. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Alan Kirman & Gilles Teyssière, 2002. "Microeconomic Models for Long Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(4), pages 1083-1083. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
  9. repec:att:wimass:199530 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2005. "Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 169-196, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ricardo Hausmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Why the US Current Account Deficit is Sustainable," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 223-240, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
  13. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-056/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Luisa Corrado & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007. "Bulls, bears and excess volatility: can currency intervention help?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 261-272. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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