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Modelling Low Pay Transition Probabilities, Accounting for Panel Attrition, Non-Response, and Initial Conditions

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  • Lorenzo Cappellari
  • Stephen P. Jenkins

Abstract

We model annual low pay transition probabilities taking account of three potentially endogenous selections: two sample drop-out mechanisms (panel attrition, non-employment) and ‘initial conditions’ (base-year low pay status). This model, and variants that ignore one or more of these selection mechanisms, are fitted to data for men from the British Household Panel Survey. Tests of the ignorability of the endogenous selection mechanisms suggest that ‘economic’ selection mechanisms such as initial conditions and retention of employment are more important than the ‘survey’ selection mechanism (attrition). However, consistent with related US research, relatively simple models provide estimates of covariate effects that differ little from the estimates from the complicated models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1232.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1232

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Keywords: transition probabilities; low pay; attrition; non-response; ignorability;

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References

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  1. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
  2. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Stewart, M.B. & Swaffield, J.K., 1997. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 495, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2002. "Modelling Low Income Transitions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 288, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  6. Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom, 1998. "Attrition in Panel Survey Data and the Estimation of Multi-State Labor Market Models," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 458-478.
  7. James P. Ziliak & Thomas J. Kniesner, 1998. "The Importance of Sample Attrition in Life Cycle Labor Supply Estimation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 507-530.
  8. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert & Runkle, David, 1988. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1232-66, December.
  9. Lee A. Lillard & Constantijn W. A. Panis, 1998. "Panel Attrition from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics: Household Income, Marital Status, and Mortality," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 437-457.
  10. Sean Becketti & William Gould & Lee Lillard & Finis Welch, 1985. "The Panel Study of Income Dynamics After Fourteen Years: An Evaluation," UCLA Economics Working Papers 361, UCLA Department of Economics.
  11. Mark B. Stewart, 2002. "The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low Pay," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  12. Ziliak, J.P. & Kniesner, T.J., 1996. "The Importance of Sample Attrition in Life Cycle Labor Supply," Discussion Paper 1996-46, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  13. Becketti, Sean, et al, 1988. "The Panel Study of Income Dynamics after Fourteen Years: An Evaluatio n," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(4), pages 472-92, October.
  14. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1979. "Attrition Bias in Experimental and Panel Data: The Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 455-73, March.
  15. Jeffrey E. Zabel, 1998. "An Analysis of Attrition in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Survey of Income and Program Participation with an Application to a Model of Labor Market Behavior," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 479-506.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schnabel, Claus & Stephani, Jens, 2010. "Low-wage careers: are there dead-end firms and dead-end jobs?," IWQW Discussion Paper Series 01/2010, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Quantitative Wirtschaftsforschung (IWQW).
  2. Aassve, Arnstein & Burgess, Simon & Dickson, Matt & Propper, Carol, 2005. "Modelling poverty by not modelling poverty: an application of a simultaneous hazards approach to the UK," ISER Working Paper Series 2005-26, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  3. Wunder, Christoph & Riphahn, Regina T., 2011. "The dynamics of welfare entry and exit among natives and immigrants," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 49162, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  4. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schank, Thorsten & Schnabel, Claus, 2009. "Low-wage employment versus unemployment: which one provides better prospects for women?," IWQW Discussion Paper Series 14/2009, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Quantitative Wirtschaftsforschung (IWQW).
  5. Mélise Jaud & Olivier Cadot & Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann, 2013. "Do food scares explain supplier concentration? An analysis of EU agri-food imports," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 40(5), pages 873-890, December.
  6. Mélise Jaud & Olivier Cadot & Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann, 2009. "Do food scares explain supplier concentration? An analysis of EU agri-food imports," Working Papers halshs-00574963, HAL.
  7. Jones, Melanie K. & Jones, Richard J. & Murphy, Philip D. & Sloane, Peter J., 2007. "A Persistence Model of the National Minimum Wage," IZA Discussion Papers 2595, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Arne Uhlendorff, 2006. "From No Pay to Low Pay and Back Again?: A Multi-State Model of Low Pay Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 648, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Stephani, Jens, 2012. "Wage growth and career patterns of German low-wage workers," IAB Discussion Paper 201201, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  10. Daniel D. Schnitzlein & Jens Stephani, 2013. "Locus of Control and Low-Wage Mobility," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 589, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  11. Stephani, Jens, 2013. "Does it matter where you work? : employer characteristics and the wage growth of low-wage workers and higher-wage workers," IAB Discussion Paper 201304, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  12. Aretz, Bodo & Gürtzgen, Nicole, 2012. "The Evolution of Wage Mobility in the German Low-Wage Sector - Is There Evidence for Increasing State Dependence?," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62049, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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