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The dynamics of welfare entry and exit among natives and immigrants

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  • Wunder, Christoph
  • Riphahn, Regina T.

Abstract

This paper uses panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to analyze welfare entry and exit among natives and immigrants after a substantial reform of the welfare system (``Hartz reform''). Using results from dynamic multinomial logit models, we calculate transition matrices between three mutually exclusive labor market states (inactivity, employment, welfare receipt) for five groups: natives, all immigrants, EU citizens, non-EU citizens, and immigrants with German citizenship. The empirical results show that temporal persistence in welfare participation can for the most part be explained by observed and unobserved characteristics. In general, immigrants appear to have a higher risk of welfare entry and a lower probability of welfare exit compared to natives. We find no evidence of a failure of the welfare system in the sense that it creates a welfare trap. Instead, the immigrant-native gap in welfare dependence arises from an insufficient labor market integration and an increased risk of unemployment for immigrants. The analysis identifies non-EU citizens, who are mostly of Turkish origin or citizens of the successor states of former Yugoslavia, as a group with particularly poor labor market prospects: they have the lowest employment stability, the highest persistence in welfare participation, the highest welfare entry rate, and the lowest welfare exit rate. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis with number 49162.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc11:49162

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Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
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Related research

Keywords: welfare trap; Hartz Reform; welfare dependence; unemployment benefit II; immigration;

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  1. Basilio, Leilanie & Bauer, Thomas K., 2010. "Transferability of Human Capital and Immigrant Assimilation: An Analysis for Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 4716, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Barrett, Alan & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2008. "Immigrants and Welfare Programmes: Exploring the Interactions between Immigrant Characteristics, Immigrant Welfare Dependence and Welfare Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 3494, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2002. "Modelling Low Income Transitions," IZA Discussion Papers 504, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Blank, Rebecca M & Ruggles, Patricia, 1994. "Short-Term Recidivism among Public-Assistance Recipients," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 49-53, May.
  5. Blank, Rebecca M., 1989. "Analyzing the length of welfare spells," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 245-273, August.
  6. repec:ese:iserwp:2004-08 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Marco Caliendo & Arne Uhlendorff, 2008. "Self-Employment Dynamics, State Dependence and Cross-Mobility Patterns," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 152, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  8. Aldashev, Alisher & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2009. "Der Zugang von Arbeitnehmern in den Bezug von Arbeitslosengeld II," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-063, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  9. Bernt Bratsberg & Oddbjorn Raaum & Knut Roed, 2008. "When Minority Labor Migrants Meet the Welfare State," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0817, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  10. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling Low Pay Transition Probabilities, Accounting for Panel Attrition, Non-Response, and Initial Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 1232, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Alisher Aldashev & Johannes Gernandt & Stephan L. Thomsen, 2008. "The Immigrant Wage Gap in Germany," FEMM Working Papers 08019, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
  12. Akay, Alpaslan, 2009. "The Wooldridge Method for the Initial Values Problem Is Simple: What About Performance?," IZA Discussion Papers 3943, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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