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Increasing returns to scale and international diffusion of technology: an empirical study for Brazil (1976-2000)

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  • Francisco Horácio P. Oliveira

    ()

  • Frederico G. Jayme Jr.

    ()

  • Mauro B. Lemos

    ()

Abstract

This article aims at exploring the empirical evidence regarding the effects of increasing returns to scale and international technological diffusion on the Brazilian manufacturing industry. Our departure point is a Kaldorian-type theoretical model that provides not only the positive effects of scale but also of diffusion on industrial performance. We use Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) for testing the model. VAR will estimate the coefficients related to industrial output, labor productivity, exports and the technological gap between the United States and Brazil. This technique also provides simulations for the short-term and long-term trajectories under exogenous shocks. The observations are on a three-month period basis and the sampling period runs from the second half of 1976 to the second half of 2000. The conclusion highlights both evidences of increasing returns on the Brazilian industry that faces, however, some structural constraints. Besides, the model also reveals Brazil's difficulties to catch up

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in its series Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG with number td211.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td211

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Keywords: technological gap; increasing returns to scale; economic growth; Brazil;

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References

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  1. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 1995. "An Evolutionary Model of Long Term Cyclical Variations of Catching Up and Falling Behind," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 209-27, September.
  2. Freeman, Chris, 1995. "The 'National System of Innovation' in Historical Perspective," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 5-24, February.
  3. John S. L. McCombie & John R. De Ridder, 1983. "Increasing Returns, Productivity, and Output Growth: The Case of the United States," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 5(3), pages 373-387, April.
  4. Fingleton, B & McCombie, J S L, 1998. "Increasing Returns and Economic Growth: Some Evidence for Manufacturing from the European Union Regions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 89-105, January.
  5. Dixon, R & Thirlwall, A P, 1975. "A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-14, July.
  6. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 355-74, June.
  7. Patrick Llerena & André Lorentz, 2004. "Cumulative Causation and Evolutionary Micro-Founded Technical Change. On the Determinants of Growth rate Differences," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 55(6), pages 1191-1214.
  8. Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2003. "The Grip of History and the Scope for Novelty: Some Results and Open Questions on Path Dependence in Economic Processes," LEM Papers Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy 2003/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  9. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness: Errata," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1203, December.
  10. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-31, March.
  11. Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior, 2001. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth in Brazil," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais td155, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  12. Harris, Richard I D & Lau, Eunice, 1998. "Verdoorn's Law and Increasing Returns to Scale in the UK Regions, 1968-91: Some New Estimates Based on the Cointegration Approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 201-19, April.
  13. André Lorentz & Patrick Llerena, 2004. "Co-Evolution of Macro-Dynamics and Technological Change : an Alternative View on Growth," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, Programme National Persée, vol. 105(1), pages 47-70.
  14. Robert A. Blecker, 1992. "Structural Roots of U.S. Trade Problems: Income Elasticities, Secular Trends, and Hysteresis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 14(3), pages 321-346, April.
  15. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 385-406, June.
  16. John S. L. McCombie, 1983. "Kaldor's Laws in Retrospect," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 5(3), pages 414-429, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Gilberto Libânio & Sueli Moro, 2011. "Manufacturing Industryand Economic Growth in Latin America," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of 86, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  2. Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Daniela Almeida Raposo Torres, 2008. "National innovation system, competitiveness and economic growth," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais td325, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.

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