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Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth in Brazil

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  • Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior

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Abstract

This paper applies Thirlwall’s basic balance-of-payments constraint model to Brazilian economic growth in the period 1955-98, using cointegration technique. According to Thirlwall (1979) and MacCombie and Thirlwall (1994) the dynamic Harrod foreign multiplier, that is, demand-induced economic growth, determines long-term economic growth. The results show that there is a positive cointegration between growth in exports and long-term economic growth in Brazil which conclusion supports Thirlwall’s model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in its series Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG with number td155.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Revista de Economia Política, 2003, vol. 23, no. 1.
Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td155

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Keywords: Thirlwall’s model; Brazil; balance-of-payments;

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References

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  1. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1989. "Comparative Advantage and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 2809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Otaviano Canuto & Márcio Holland & Clésio Xavier, 1998. "Taxas de Câmbio, Elasticidades-renda e Saldo Comercial na Economia Brasileira," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 52(2), pages 323-334, April.
  3. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
  4. Ann Harrison, 1995. "Openness and Growth: A Time-Series, Cross-Country Analysis for Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 5221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Anwar M. Shaikh, 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and the International Mobility of Capital," Economics Working Paper Archive, Levy Economics Institute wp_265, Levy Economics Institute.
  6. Harrison, Ann & Hanson, Gordon, 1999. "Who gains from trade reform? Some remaining puzzles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 125-154, June.
  7. Taylor, Lance, 1994. "Gap models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 17-34, October.
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Trade Policy, Exchange Rates and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
  10. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
  11. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Oliveira, Francisco H.P. & Jayme, Frederico Jr. & Lemos, Mauro B., 2006. "Increasing returns to scale and international diffusion of technology: An empirical study for Brazil (1976-2000)," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, January.
  2. Adriana Moreira Amado & Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Frederico G. Jayme Jr., 2006. "Economic growth cycles in Latin America and developing countries," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais td297, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  3. Adriana Moreira Amado & Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Frederico G. Jayme Jr., 2007. "Growth Cycles In Latin America And Developed Countries," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Gr 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  4. Luciano Nakabashi, 2010. "Thirlwall ou Solow? Uma análise para a economia brasileira entre 1947 e 2008," Working Papers, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics 0110, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
  5. Luciano Nakabashi & Marcelo Luiz Curado & João Basílio Pereima Neto, 2008. "Os efeitos do câmbio no crescimento da economia brasileira," Working Papers, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics 0074, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
  6. Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Jr, 2001. "Notes on trade and growth," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais td166, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.

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