IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdp/texdis/td155.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior

Abstract

This paper applies Thirlwall’s basic balance-of-payments constraint model to Brazilian economic growth in the period 1955-98, using cointegration technique. According to Thirlwall (1979) and MacCombie and Thirlwall (1994) the dynamic Harrod foreign multiplier, that is, demand-induced economic growth, determines long-term economic growth. The results show that there is a positive cointegration between growth in exports and long-term economic growth in Brazil which conclusion supports Thirlwall’s model.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior, 2001. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth in Brazil," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td155, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td155
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20155.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1998. "On Capital Flows and The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, December.
    2. Darryl Holden & Roger Perman, 1994. "Unit Roots and Cointegration for the Economist," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 3, pages 47-112, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    4. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Comparative Advantage and Long-run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 796-815, September.
    5. Anwar Shaikh, 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and the International Mobility of Capital," Macroeconomics 9904002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Canuto, Otaviano & Holland, Márcio & Xavier, Clésio, 1998. "Taxas de Câmbio, Elasticidades-renda e Saldo Comercial na Economia Brasileira," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 52(2), April.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Trade Policy, Exchange Rates, and Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Reform, Recovery, and Growth: Latin America and the Middle East, pages 13-52, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Harrison, Ann & Hanson, Gordon, 1999. "Who gains from trade reform? Some remaining puzzles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 125-154, June.
    9. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8.
    11. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
    12. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, January.
    13. H. Sonmez Atesoglu, 1993. "Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 507-514, July.
    14. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
    15. André Filipe Zago de Azevedo & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 1998. "Abertura comercial brasileira e instabilidade da demanda de importações," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 8(1), pages 37-63.
    16. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
    17. Taylor, Lance, 1994. "Gap models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 17-34, October.
    18. Yash P. Mehra, 1994. "Wage Growth and the Inflation Process: An Empirical Approach," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 5, pages 147-159, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sérgio Filho & Frederico Jayme & Gilberto Libânio, 2013. "Balance-of-payments constrained growth: a post Keynesian model with capital inflows," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 373-398.
    2. Luciano Nakabashi, 2010. "Thirlwall ou Solow? Uma análise para a economia brasileira entre 1947 e 2008," Working Papers 0110, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    3. Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Jr, 2001. "Notes on trade and growth," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td166, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    4. Douglas Alencar & Frederico G. Jayme Jr & Gustavo Britto, 2021. "A post-Kaleckian model with productivity growth and real exchange rate applied to selected Latin American countries," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(297), pages 127-146.
    5. Adriana Moreira Amado & Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Frederico G. Jayme Jr., 2007. "Growth Cycles In Latin America And Developed Countries," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Musa Esuwa Shingil & Huseyin Ozdeser & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2022. "Investigation of Balance of Payment Constrained Growth Model: The Impact of Export Growth, Capital Flows, and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Growth of the UK," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    7. Maria Carolina Basso, 2016. "A Economia Brasileira Sob Restrição Do Balanço De Pagamentos: Uma Análise Empírica Da Lei De Thirlwall No Boom Das Commodities," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 089, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Luciano Nakabashi & Marcelo Luiz Curado & João Basílio Pereima Neto, 2008. "Os efeitos do câmbio no crescimento da economia brasileira," Working Papers 0074, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    9. Oliveira, Francisco H.P. & Jayme, Frederico Jr. & Lemos, Mauro B., 2006. "Increasing returns to scale and international diffusion of technology: An empirical study for Brazil (1976-2000)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, January.
    10. Adriana Moreira Amado & Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Frederico G. Jayme Jr., 2006. "Economic growth cycles in Latin America and developing countries," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td297, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    11. Arestis, Philip & Baltar, Carolina Troncoso, 2019. "A model of economic growth for an open emerging country: empirical evidence for Brazil," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 217-227.
    12. Luciano Ferreira Gabriel & Fabrício Missio, 2016. "Sistema Nacional De Inovação Em Um Modelo Com Restrição Externa," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 083, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Jayme Jr., Frederico G. & Romero, João Prates & Silveira, Fabrício, 2011. "Brazil: structural change and balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    14. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:8:y:2018:i:3:p:29-38 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Jr, 2001. "Notes on trade and growth," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td166, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    2. Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior, 2001. "External debt sustainability: empirical evidence in Brazil," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td154, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    3. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    4. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2001. "The balance-of-payments constraint:from balanced trade to sustainable debt," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 381-400.
    5. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Carolina Castaldi & Mario Cimoli & Nelson Correa & Giovanni Dosi, 2004. "Technological Learning, Policy Regimes and Growth in a `Globalized' Economy: General Patterns and the Latin American Experience," LEM Papers Series 2004/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Ramezan Hosseinzadeh, 2011. "Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence of Thirlwall’s Law in Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 2(2), pages 81-88.
    8. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    9. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    10. Elias Soukiazis & Eva Muchova, 2012. "Slovak economic growth and the consistency of the balance-of-payments constraint approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-16, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    11. Vidal Alejandro, Pavel & Fundora Fernández, Annia, 2008. "Trade-growth relationship in Cuba: estimation using the Kalman filter," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    12. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2004. "Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post-Keynesian approach," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 14(2), pages 59-86, May-Augus.
    13. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro André Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2012. "Growth Rates Constrained by Internal and External Imbalances: A Demand-Orientated Approach," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 5, pages 144-167, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. María Soledad Feal Zubimendi, 2008. "Crecimiento económico y apertura comercial: análisis de la influencia de los canales," Estudios Economicos, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Departamento de Economia, vol. 25(50), pages 37-73, January-j.
    15. Luciano Nakabashi, 2010. "Thirlwall ou Solow? Uma análise para a economia brasileira entre 1947 e 2008," Working Papers 0110, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    16. Luciano Nakabashi & Marcelo Luiz Curado & João Basílio Pereima Neto, 2008. "Os efeitos do câmbio no crescimento da economia brasileira," Working Papers 0074, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    17. A.P. Thirlwall, 2018. "Una vita nell’economia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 71(283), pages 179-210.
    18. Jesus Felipe & J. S. L. McCombie & Kaukab Naqvi, 2010. "Is Pakistan's Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 477-496.
    19. Marcos Tostes Lamonica & Carmem Aparecida Feijo, 2013. "A Kaldorian approach to catch up and structural change in economies with high degree of heterogeneity," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 66(265), pages 107-135.
    20. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "Growth rates constrained by internal and external imbalances and the role of relative prices: empirical evidence from Portugal," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 275-298.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Thirlwall’s model; Brazil; balance-of-payments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. FOSS Government Policy/Strategic Importance of FOSS in Wikibooks English

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gustavo Britto (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pufmgbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.