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An Evolutionary Model of Long Term Cyclical Variations of Catching Up and Falling Behind

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  • Silverberg, Gerald
  • Verspagen, Bart

Abstract

We generalize a single-country model of endogenous growth to the case of a multi-country world economy in which technology transfer and behavioral imitation are the possible means of interaction between countries. The model is evolutionary in the sense that the economies are disaggregated by behaviourally heterogeneous firms, market selection occurs and the innovation process is uncertain and stochastic. We demonstrate that this structure leads to a complex process of convergence and divergence over time that can be characterized as 1/f noise. Spectral analysis of measures of convergence for six core OECD countries in the period 1870-1989 reveals a similar pattern in the empirical data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.

Volume (Year): 5 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 209-27

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:5:y:1995:i:3:p:209-27

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Cited by:
  1. Verspagen,Bart, 1999. "Intellectual Property Rights in the World Economy," Research Memorandum 016, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  2. Silverberg,Gerald & Verspagen,Bart, 1999. "Long Memory in Time Series of Economic Growth and Convergence," Research Memorandum 015, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  3. André Lorentz, . "Sectoral Specialisation and Growth Rate Differences Among Integrated Economies," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
  4. Oliveira, Francisco H.P. & Jayme, Frederico Jr. & Lemos, Mauro B., 2006. "Increasing returns to scale and international diffusion of technology: An empirical study for Brazil (1976-2000)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, January.
  5. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Brouwer, Roy & Hofkes, Marjan, 2013. "Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-118.
  6. Castellacci, Fulvio, 2011. "Theoretical models of heterogeneity, growth and competitiveness: insights from the mainstream and evolutionary economics paradigms," MPRA Paper 27525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Konov, Joshua Ioji, 2012. "Market Economy under Rapid Globalization and Rising Productivity," MPRA Paper 48750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Castellacci, Fulvio & Grodal, Stine & Mendonca, Sandro & Wibe, Mona, 2005. "Advances and challenges in innovation studies," MPRA Paper 27519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Garavaglia, Christian, 2010. "Modelling industrial dynamics with "History-friendly" simulations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 258-275, November.
  10. Patrick Llerena & André Lorentz, 2003. "Alternative Theories on Economic Growth and the Co-evolution of Macro-Dynamics and Technological Change: A survey," LEM Papers Series 2003/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  11. Gianluca Grimalda & Marco Vivarelli, 2010. "Is inequality the price to pay for higher growth in middle-income countries?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 265-306, April.
  12. Bacila Nicolae, 2012. "The Implications Of State Aid To R&D On Economic Development In The European Union," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 96-101, July.
  13. Witold Kwasnicki, 2002. "Evolutionary models’ comparative analysis. Methodology proposition based on selected neo-schumpeterian models of industrial dynamics," Microeconomics 0203002, EconWPA.
  14. Vanessa Oltra & Murat Yildizoglu, 1999. "Non Expectations and Adaptive Behaviours: the Missing Trade-off in Models of Innovation," Working Papers of BETA 9915, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  15. Silverberg,Gerald & Verspagen,Bart, 1999. "Long Memory in Time Series of Economic Growth and Convergence," Research Memorandum 015, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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