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An Evolutionary Model of Long Term Cyclical Variations of Catching Up and Falling Behind

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  • Silverberg, Gerald
  • Verspagen, Bart

Abstract

We generalize a single-country model of endogenous growth to the case of a multi-country world economy in which technology transfer and behavioral imitation are the possible means of interaction between countries. The model is evolutionary in the sense that the economies are disaggregated by behaviourally heterogeneous firms, market selection occurs and the innovation process is uncertain and stochastic. We demonstrate that this structure leads to a complex process of convergence and divergence over time that can be characterized as 1/f noise. Spectral analysis of measures of convergence for six core OECD countries in the period 1870-1989 reveals a similar pattern in the empirical data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.

Volume (Year): 5 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 209-27

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:5:y:1995:i:3:p:209-27

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References

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  1. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," DELTA Working Papers 90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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Cited by:
  1. Verspagen,Bart, 1999. "Intellectual Property Rights in the World Economy," Research Memoranda 016, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology.
  2. Witold Kwasnicki, 2002. "Evolutionary models’ comparative analysis. Methodology proposition based on selected neo-schumpeterian models of industrial dynamics," Microeconomics 0203002, EconWPA.
  3. Nicolae BACILA, 2012. "The relationship between government and business r&d expenditure in the European Union," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 134-141, May.
  4. Castellacci, Fulvio, 2011. "Theoretical models of heterogeneity, growth and competitiveness: insights from the mainstream and evolutionary economics paradigms," MPRA Paper 27525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Garavaglia, Christian, 2010. "Modelling industrial dynamics with "History-friendly" simulations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 258-275, November.
  6. Silverberg,Gerald & Verspagen,Bart, 1999. "Long Memory in Time Series of Economic Growth and Convergence," Research Memoranda 015, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology.
  7. Gianluca Grimalda & Marco Vivarelli, 2010. "Is inequality the price to pay for higher growth in middle-income countries?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 265-306, April.
  8. G. Silverberg & B. Verspagen, 1995. "Evolutionary Theorizing on Economic Growth," Working Papers wp95078, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  9. Francisco Horácio P. Oliveira & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Mauro B. Lemos, 2003. "Increasing returns to scale and international diffusion of technology: an empirical study for Brazil (1976-2000)," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td211, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  10. André Lorentz, . "Sectoral Specialisation and Growth Rate Differences Among Integrated Economies," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
  11. Vanessa Oltra & Murat Yildizoglu, 1999. "Non Expectations and Adaptive Behaviours: the Missing Trade-off in Models of Innovation," Working Papers of BETA 9915, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  12. Patrick Llerena & André Lorentz, 2003. "Alternative Theories on Economic Growth and the Co-evolution of Macro-Dynamics and Technological Change: A survey," LEM Papers Series 2003/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  13. Castellacci, Fulvio & Grodal, Stine & Mendonca, Sandro & Wibe, Mona, 2005. "Advances and challenges in innovation studies," MPRA Paper 27519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Bacila Nicolae, 2012. "The Implications Of State Aid To R&D On Economic Development In The European Union," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 96-101, July.

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