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The Impact of Technological Opportunity on the Dynamics of Trade Performance

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  • Keld Laursen

Abstract

The paper explores firstly the impact of technological change on trade growth at the country level, using trade statistics and statistics on patenting activity in the US, across 20 countries for 17 manufacturing sectors. Secondly, using structural decomposition analysis, the paper examine whether the degree to which countries get access to sectors with above average growth in technological opportunity has any impact on growth in aggregate market shares of exports. The results demonstrate that there is a positive relationship between change in trade performance and change in technological capabilities across countries for 8 ‘technology intensive’ sectors over the period 1965-1988. It is also shown that there appear to be some (however weak) relationship between the degree to which countries get access to sectors with above average growth in technological opportunity and growth in aggregate market shares. However, there seems to be a much stronger positive relationship between growth rates in trade performance and the individual ‘national innovation system’s’ ability to actively move into technological sectors offering above average technological opportunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Keld Laursen, 1996. "The Impact of Technological Opportunity on the Dynamics of Trade Performance," DRUID Working Papers 96-12, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:aal:abbswp:96-12
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    Cited by:

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    2. Montobbio, Fabio & Rampa, Francesco, 2005. "The impact of technology and structural change on export performance in nine developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 527-547, April.
    3. Mohd Fayaz & Sandeep Kaur, 2022. "India’s Merchandise Exports to Asia: A Constant Market Share Analysis," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(2), pages 178-197, May.
    4. Cheptea, Angela, 2011. "Who Gains and Who Loses from China's Growth?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114299, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Andre Jungmittag & Hariolf Grupp & Angela Hullmann, 1998. "Changing Patterns of Specialisation in Global High Technology Markets: an Empirical Investigation of Advanced Countries," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 67(2), pages 86-98.
    6. Gaulier, Guillaume & Santoni, Gianluca & Taglioni, Daria & Zignago, Soledad, 2013. "In the wake of the global crisis : evidence from a new quarterly database of export competitiveness," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6733, The World Bank.
    7. Petralia, Sergio & Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Morrison, Andrea, 2017. "Climbing the ladder of technological development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 956-969.
    8. Urraca-Ruiz, Ana, 2013. "The ‘technological’ dimension of structural change under market integration," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-18.
    9. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Technological regimes and sectoral differences in productivity growth ," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 16(6), pages 1105-1145, December.
    10. Franco Malerba & Fabio Montobbio, 2004. "Structural Change in Innovative Activities in Four Leading Sectors. An Interpretation of the Stylized Facts," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 55(6), pages 1051-1070.
    11. Gaulier, G. & Santoni, G. & Taglioni, D. & Zignago, S., 2013. "Market Shares in the Wake of the Global Crisis: the Quarterly Export Competitiveness Database," Working papers 472, Banque de France.
    12. Francesco Lamperti & Franco Malerba & Roberto Mavilia & Giorgio Tripodi, 2019. "Does the Position in the Inter-sectoral Knowledge Space affect the International Competitiveness of Industries?," LEM Papers Series 2019/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    13. Jan de Kok & O Som & P Neuhäusler, 2014. "The impact of the 2008 financial crisis on European enterprises: the role of innovation systems," Scales Research Reports H201411, EIM Business and Policy Research.
    14. Valeria Costantini & Francesco Crespi, 2015. "European enlargement policy, technological capabilities and sectoral export dynamics," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 25-69, February.
    15. Muscio, Alessandro & Nardone, Gianluca & Stasi, Antonio, 2012. "Perceived Technological Regimes: An Empirical Analysis of the Apulian Wine Industry," 2012 International European Forum, February 13-17, 2012, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 144969, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    16. Mohd. Fayaz & Sandeep Kaur Bhatia, 2018. "Technological Intensity of Indian Exports and the Performance of Emerging Asian Economies," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 62-77, May.
    17. Ginchev Ivan & Guerraggio Angelo & Rocca Matteo, 2002. "On second-order conditions in vector optimization," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0218, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    18. Castellacci, Fulvio, 2008. "Innovation and the competitiveness of industries: comparing the mainstream and the evolutionary approaches," MPRA Paper 27523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mahmood, Ishtiaq P. & Singh, Jasjit, 2003. "Technological dynamism in Asia," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1031-1054, June.
    20. Ana Urraca Ruiz, 2007. "Persistência E Mudança Estrutural Da Especialização Tecnológica No Brasil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 156, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological opportunity; trade growth; national systems of innovation; structural decomposition analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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