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Capital Flow Volatility And Exchange Rates-- The Case Of India

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  • Pami Dua

    (Delhi School of Economics)

  • Partha Sen

    (Delhi School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the real exchange rate, level of capital flows, volatility of the flows, fiscal and monetary policy indicators and the current account surplus for the Indian economy for the period 1993Q2 to 2004Q1. The estimations indicate that the variables are cointegrated and each granger causes the real exchange rate. The generalized variance decompositions show that determinants of the real exchange rate, in descending order of importance include net capital inflows and their volatility (jointly), government expenditure, current account surplus and the money supply. A preliminary analysis suggests that a similar analysis can be performed for the foreign exchange reserves held by the RBI.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Working papers with number 144.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:144

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Keywords: real exchange rate; capital flows; foreign exchange reserves; cointegration;

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
  3. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  4. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  5. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  6. Marcelo P. Dabós & V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 2000. "Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Flows in Mexico," IMF Working Papers 00/108, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  8. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  9. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  10. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  11. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  12. Marcelo Dabos & V. Hugo Juan- Ramon, 1998. "Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Flows in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia 21, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Dec 1999.
  13. Renu Kohli, 2004. "Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Sector in India," International Finance, EconWPA 0405012, EconWPA.
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Cited by:
  1. Partha Sen, 2007. "Capital inflows, financial repression, and macroeconomic policy in India since the reforms," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 292-310, Summer.
  2. Anita Mirchandani, 2013. "Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility in India," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 172-179.
  3. Abdul Rashid & Fazal Husain, 2010. "Capital Inflows, Inflation and Exchange Rate Volatility : An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22832, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  4. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Panda, Swayamsiddha, 2014. "Modeling India's External Sector: Review and Some Empirics," Working Papers, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy 14/138, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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