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Internal Versus External Growth in Industries With Scale Economies: A Computational Model of Optimal Merger Policy

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  • Ben Mermelstein
  • Volker Nocke
  • Mark A. Satterthwaite
  • Michael D. Whinston

Abstract

We study optimal merger policy in a dynamic model in which the presence of scale economies implies that firms can reduce costs through either internal investment in building capital or through mergers. The model, which we solve computationally, allows firms to invest or propose mergers according to the relative profitability of these strategies. An antitrust authority is able to block mergers at some cost. We examine the optimal policy for an antitrust authority who cannot commit to its future policy rule and approves or rejects mergers as they are proposed, considering both consumer value and aggregate value as its possible objectives. We find that the optimal policy can differ substantially from what would be best considering only welfare in the period the merger is proposed. In general, antitrust policy can greatly affect firms' optimal investment behavior, and firms' investment behavior can in turn greatly affect the antitrust authority's optimal policy. Moreover, externalities imposed by mergers on rivals can have significant effects on firms' investment incentives and thereby shape the optimal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Mermelstein & Volker Nocke & Mark A. Satterthwaite & Michael D. Whinston, 2018. "Internal Versus External Growth in Industries With Scale Economies: A Computational Model of Optimal Merger Policy," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2018_038, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2018_038
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    Cited by:

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    3. Nocke, Volker & Schutz, Nicolas, 2018. "An Aggregative Games Approach to Merger Analysis in Multiproduct-Firm Oligopoly," CEPR Discussion Papers 12905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Igor Letina & Armin Schmutzler & Regina Seibel, 2024. "Killer Acquisitions And Beyond: Policy Effects On Innovation Strategies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 591-622, May.
    5. Jin, Ginger Zhe & Leccese, Mario & Wagman, Liad, 2023. "How Do Top Acquirers Compare in Technology Mergers? New Evidence from an S&P Taxonomy," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Eileen Fumagalli & Tore Nilssen, 2019. "Sweetening the Pill: a Theory of Waiting to Merge," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 351-388, September.
    7. Gilbert, Richard J. & Katz, Michael L., 2022. "Dynamic merger policy and pre-merger product choice by an entrant," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Kaplow, Louis, 2021. "Horizontal merger analysis," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Cavenaile, Laurent & Celik, Murat Alp & Tian, Xu, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of Antitrust Policy on Growth and Welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 42-59.
    10. Giulio Federico & Fiona Scott Morton & Carl Shapiro, 2020. "Antitrust and Innovation: Welcoming and Protecting Disruption," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(1), pages 125-190.
    11. Chen, J. & Elliott, M. & Koh, A., 2020. "Capability Accumulation and Conglomeratization in the Information Age," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2069, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Xavier Boutin, 2015. "Mergers and the Dynamics of Innovation," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Brett Hollenbeck, 2020. "Horizontal mergers and innovation in concentrated industries," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-37, March.
    14. Robert Clark & Mario Samano, 2022. "Incentivized Mergers and Cost Efficiency: Evidence from the Electricity Distribution Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 791-837, December.
    15. John Asker & Chaim Fershtman & Jihye Jeon & Ariel Pakes, 2020. "A computational framework for analyzing dynamic auctions: The market impact of information sharing," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(3), pages 805-839, September.
    16. Ulrich Doraszelski & Kenneth L. Judd, 2019. "Dynamic stochastic games with random moves," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 59-79, March.
    17. Haucap, Justus & Stiebale, Joel, 2023. "Non-price effects of mergers and acquisitions," DICE Discussion Papers 402, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    18. John Asker & Chaim Fershtman & Jihye Jeon & Ariel Pakes, 2016. "The Competitive Effects of Information Sharing," NBER Working Papers 22836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Neba Bhalla & Inderjit Kaur & Rakesh Kumar Sharma, 2022. "Examining the Effect of Tax Reform Determinants, Firms’ Characteristics and Demographic Factors on the Financial Performance of Small and Micro Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    20. Calvano, Emilio & Polo, Michele, 2021. "Market power, competition and innovation in digital markets: A survey," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    21. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov, 2017. "How Efficient is Dynamic Competition? The Case of Price as Investment," NBER Working Papers 23829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Przemysław Jeziorski, 2023. "Empirical Model of Dynamic Merger Enforcement—Choosing Ownership Caps in U.S. Radio," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(8), pages 4457-4480, August.
    23. FUKASAWA Takeshi & OHASHI Hiroshi, 2023. "Long-run Effect of a Horizontal Merger and Its Remedial Standards," Discussion papers 23001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Horizontal merger; merger policy; investment; scale economies; antitrust;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L40 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - General

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