Measuring return and volatility spillovers in euro area financial markets
AbstractThis study examines the return (price) and volatility spillovers among the money, stock, foreign exchange and bond markets of the euro area, utilizing the forecast-error variance decomposition framework of a generalized VAR model proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) [Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 57-66]. Our empirical results, based on a data set covering a twelve-year period (2000-2012), suggest a high level of total return and volatility spillover effects throughout the sample, indicating that, on average, more than the 50% of the forecast-error variance of the respective VAR model is explained by spillover effects. Moreover, the stock market is identified as the main transmitter of both return and volatility spillovers even during the current sovereign debt crisis. With the exception of the period 2011-2012, bonds of the periphery countries under financial support mechanisms are receivers of return spillovers, whereas, they transmit volatility spillovers to other markets diachronically. Finally, we identify the key role of money market in volatility transmission in the euro area during the outbreak of the global financial crisis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 154.
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Asset markets; Spillovers; Vector Autoregressive; Euro area; Financial Crisis.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2013-10-02 (European Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2013-10-02 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-FOR-2013-10-02 (Forecasting)
- NEP-IFN-2013-10-02 (International Finance)
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