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The effect of payments standstills on yields and the maturity structure of international debt

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  • Benjamin Martin
  • Adrian Penalver
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    Abstract

    Payments standstills have been suggested as a tool for the resolution of financial crises in emerging markets economies. A simple model is developed here to examine the implications of standstills for yields and the maturity structure of debt. An emerging market country chooses to sell short and long-term debt to risk-neutral international investors. The key assumptions are that the level of short-term debt increases the probability of crisis, that crises have costs that spill over into the next period, and that the orderly resolution of financial crises will reduce the cost of crises. A standstill is depicted as an orderly rollover of short-term debt. Standstills have the benefit of reducing the proportion of short-term debt and so lower the probability of crisis. This comes at the cost of generally lower expected output.

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    Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 184.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:184

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    1. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2000. "Sovereign Liquidity Crises: The Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 335-62, January.
    2. Gai, Prasanna & Hayes, Simon & Shin, Hyun Song, 2004. "Crisis costs and debtor discipline: the efficacy of public policy in sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 245-262, March.
    3. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
    4. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. W.H. Buiter & A Sibert, 1999. "UDROP: A Small Contribution to the International Financial Architecture," CEP Discussion Papers dp0425, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey & Roubini, Nouriel, 2002. "The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises," Working Paper Series rwp02-002, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    7. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael P. Dooley, 2000. "Can Output Losses Following International Financial Crises be Avoided?," NBER Working Papers 7531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Andy Haldane & Mark Kruger, 2001. "The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds," Working Papers 01-20, Bank of Canada.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    11. Buiter, Willem H & Sibert, Anne, 1999. "UDROP: A Small Contribution to the New International Financial Architecture," CEPR Discussion Papers 2138, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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