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Time-varying volatility, precautionary saving and monetary policy

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  • Hatcher, Michael

    ()
    (Cardiff University)

Abstract

This paper analyses the conduct of monetary policy in an environment where households’ desire to amass precautionary savings is influenced by fluctuations in the volatilities of disturbances that hit the economy. It uses a simple New Keynesian model with external habit formation that is augmented with demand and supply disturbances whose volatilities vary over time. If volatility fluctuations are ignored by policy, interest rates are set at a suboptimal level. The extent of ‘policy bias’ is relatively small but of greater importance the higher the degree of habit formation. The reason is that habit-forming preferences raise risk aversion, increasing the importance of the precautionary savings channel through which volatility fluctuations impact upon inflation and output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 440.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0440

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Keywords: Time-varying volatility; precautionary saving; monetary policy; DSGE models.;

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  1. Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2010. "Second-Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk," CEP Discussion Papers dp1033, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan Francisco & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "Does Buffer-Stock Saving Explain the Smoothness and Excess Sensitivity of Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 631-647, June.
  5. Andrew Benito, 2002. "Does Job Insecurity Affect Household Consumption?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0225, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. De Paoli, Bianca & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2011. "Cyclical risk aversion, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 418, Bank of England.
  8. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 7813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Andreasen, Martin, 2011. "How non-Gaussian shocks affect risk premia in non-linear DSGE models," Bank of England working papers 417, Bank of England.
  10. Michael Woodford & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2004. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," 2004 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  12. De Paoli, Bianca & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2012. "Why Do Risk Premia Vary Over Time? A Theoretical Investigation Under Habit Formation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 252-266, September.
  13. Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe & Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 0613, European Central Bank.
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