The confidence channel for the transmission of shocks
AbstractIt is widely known that agents confidence is closely linked to macroeconomic cycles. A confidence channel may therefore have a significant impact in accelerating and amplifying the transmission of shocks accross borders. We endeavor to find empirical proof of the existence of a confidence channel between G7 countries (and Spain). This paper centers around the concept of a contagion of confidence from “large countries” to “small countries”. I apply instrumental-variable regressions to OECD standardized Consumers and Business Confidence measures, in order to investigate the relationship between the confidence series of all G7 countries, and Spain. Macroeconomic variables are included in these regressions to control for domestic causes of confidence changes. We find that, even after having controlled for domestic macroeconomic causes of confidence level variations, the level of confidence of agents in large countries does have an influence on the level of confidence of agents in smaller countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 314.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
confidence channel; contagion; confidence shock.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-01-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-01-30 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-01-30 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009.
"Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence,"
NBER Working Papers
15049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-77, June.
- Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006.
"Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," 2006 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003.
"Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations,"
IDEI Working Papers
158, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Enhancing Productivity (NBER-CEPR-TCER-Keio conference) National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
- Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier & Paul Beaudry, 2007. "The International Propagation of News Shocks," 2007 Meeting Papers 251, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Robert Anderton & Filippo di Mauro & Fabio Moneta, 2004. "Understanding the impact of the external dimension on the euro area - trade, capital flows and other international macroeconomic linkages," Occasional Paper Series 12, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.