US Outlook and German Confidence: Does the Confidence Channel Work?
AbstractOne channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other studies the direct informational content of leading US indicators for German producer confidence and the significance of asymmetric reactions is tested. The results show that there is a relationship between the respective variables, which has become closer during the nineties. However the hypothesis of asymmetries had to be rejected.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 324.
Length: 21 p.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Confidence Channel; Business Cycle; Leading Indicators;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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