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Germany and the European Business Cycle - An Analysis of Causal Relations in an International Real Business Cycle Model

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Author Info
Ferdinand Fichtner ()

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Abstract

This paper studies the role of the German economy for the existence of the so called European business cycle, a term referring to the regularly observed synchronization of the national business cycles in Europe. Using a three-country general equilibrium model, we are able to simulate impulse response functions mimicking the important features observed in the data. Focusing on the importance of shocks affecting the German GDP we show that trade-related transmission from Germany to the other European economies is only of minor importance for the synchronization of national business cycles. On the contrary, our findings suggest that the influence of common shocks and of technology spillovers accounts for most of the parallels in economic performance.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany in its series IWP Discussion Paper Series with number 01/2003.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: May 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kln:iwpdip:dp01/03

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Related research
Keywords: European business cycle; Transmission; Open economy macroeconomics; Real business cycles;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Mills, Terence C & Holmes, Mark J, 1999. "Common Trends and Cycles in European Industrial Production: Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Convergence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(4), pages 557-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cantor, Richard & Mark, Nelson C, 1988. "The International Transmission of Real Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(3), pages 493-507, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 467, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Dellas, Harris, 1986. "A real model of the world business cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 381-394, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Anderson, H.M. & Kwark, N.-S. & Vahid, F., 1999. "Does International Trade Synchronize Business Cycles?," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/99, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  21. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    Other versions:
  22. Inklaar, Robert & Haan, Jakob de, 2000. "Is there Really a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  23. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1996. "The Computational Experiment: An Econometric Tool," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-85, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul Hallwood & Ian W. Marsh & Joerg Scheibe, 2004. "An Assessment of the Case for Monetary Union or Official Dollarization in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela," Working papers 2004-13, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christian Richter & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2005. "A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Coherences of the US Business," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 45, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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