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Does International Trade Synchronize Business Cycles?

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Author Info

  • Anderson, H.M.
  • Kwark, N.-S.
  • Vahid, F.

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between international trade and output fluctuations. The authors find evidence that the business cycles of countries that are more open to international trade are more likely to by synchronized with the business cycles of their major trading partners. A detailed study of the South Korean case shows that while business cycles are related to openness, the diversification of export destinations seems to weaken these links. The authors find no relationship between openness and output volatility.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/1999/wp8-99.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 8/99.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jun 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:1999-8

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Related research

Keywords: Coherence; Volatility; Business Cycles; Time Series;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pablo Mejía-Reyes & Jeanett Campos-Chávez, 2011. "Are the Mexican States and the United States Business Cycles Synchronized? Evidence from the Manufacturing Production," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 79-112, January-J.
  2. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Maria Bejan, 2007. "Some Business Cycle Consequences of Trade Agreements:The Case of the North American Free Trade Agreement," RSCAS Working Papers 2007/03, European University Institute.
  4. Jorge Herrera Hernández, 2004. "Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: Do they share common movements?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 303-323, November.
  5. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.
  6. Fiess, Norbert, 2005. "Business cycle synchronization and regional integration: a case study for Central America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3584, The World Bank.
  7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
  8. Ferdinand Fichtner, 2003. "Germany and the European Business Cycle - An Analysis of Causal Relations in an International Real Business Cycle Model," IWP Discussion Paper Series 01/2003, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany.
  9. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar, 2004. "Bilateral Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Mexico and United States Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 2004-05, Banco de México.
  11. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Huh, Hyeon-Seung & Harris, David, 2003. "The relative impact of the US and Japanese business cycles on the Australian economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 111-129, January.
  12. Maria Bejan, 2011. "Trade Agreements and International Comovements: the Case of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 667-685, October.
  13. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
  14. Marek Lubiński, 2007. "International Business Cycle," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 1(2), June.
  15. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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