Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Common Trends and Cycles in European Industrial Production: Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Convergence

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mills, Terence C
  • Holmes, Mark J

Abstract

We analyse monthly data on six European industrial production series to ascertain the presence of common cycles and trends. Particular attention is paid to the exchange rate regime, with the Bretton Woods and Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) regimes being analysed separately. We employ recently developed techniques in vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling (a) to test for and estimate both common trends and common cycles, (b) to estimate VAR models subject to these 'common feature' restrictions, (c) to compare and contrast these models with those obtained from an alternative approach, that of estimating unrestricted levels VAR models, and (d) to present a permanent-transitory decomposition of the series that is based on the common trends found in the systems. We find limited evidence of convergence during the ERM, and this is of a long-run nature. In the short run, asymmetric shocks seem to have produced a divergence compared with the earlier Bretton Woods regime. There is also some evidence of German 'leadership' over Belgium, France and the Netherlands. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=manc&volume=67&issue=4&year=1999&part=null
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 67 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 557-87

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:67:y:1999:i:4:p:557-87

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1463-6786
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1463-6786

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Banik, Nilanjan & Biswas, Basudeb & Criddle, Keith R., 2009. "Optimum currency area in South Asia: A state space approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 502-510, June.
  2. Matthieu Lemoine, 2006. "Annex A5 : A model of the stochastic convergence between euro area business cycles," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1461, Sciences Po.
  3. Matthieu Lemoine, 2005. "A model of the stochastic convergence between business cycles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  4. Terence D.Agbeyegbe, 2003. "On the feasibility of a monetary union in the Southern Africa Development Community," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 306, Hunter College Department of Economics, revised 2003.
  5. Mark J. Holmes, 2005. "Is Long-Run Output Convergence Associated With International Cooperation? Some New Evidence For Selected African Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 67-85, December.
  6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1461 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Taufiq Choudhry, 2002. "Money-Income Relationships between Three ERM Countries," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 59-94, May.
  8. Bley, Jorg, 2009. "European stock market integration: Fact or fiction?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 759-776, December.
  9. Consuelo Gámez Amián & Amalia Morales Zumaquero., 2002. "Complete or Partial Inflation Convergence in the EU?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/09, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  10. Ferdinand Fichtner, 2003. "Germany and the European Business Cycle - An Analysis of Causal Relations in an International Real Business Cycle Model," IWP Discussion Paper Series 01/2003, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:67:y:1999:i:4:p:557-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.