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The Condorcet Jury-Theorem with Two Independent Error-Probabilities

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Author Info
Roland Kirstein (University of Saarland)

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Abstract

The Condorcet jury-theorem is derived from the implicit assumption that jury members may only commit one type of error. In binary decision situations however, two error types may occur, the probability of which is independent of each other. Taking this into account leads to a generalization of the theorem.

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Paper provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its series German Working Papers in Law and Economics with number 2006-1-1154.

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Handle: RePEc:bep:dewple:2006-1-1154

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Keywords: Group decisions; judicial; imperfect decision-making;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General
L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure

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  1. Winston Koh, 2005. "Optimal sequential decision architectures and the robustness of hierarchies and polyarchies," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 397-411, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Heiner, Ronald A, 1985. "Origin of Predictable Behavior: Further Modeling and Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 391-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ben-Yashar, Ruth C & Nitzan, Shmuel I, 1997. "The Optimal Decision Rule for Fixed-Size Committees in Dichotomous Choice Situations: The General Result," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 175-86, February.
  4. Heiner, Ronald A, 1983. "The Origin of Predictable Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 560-95, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Norman Schofield, 2005. "The intellectual contribution of Condorcet to the founding of the US Republic 1785–1800," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 303-318, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Timothy Feddersen & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 1996. "Convicting the Innocent: The Inferiority of Unanimous Jury Verdicts," Discussion Papers 1170, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
  7. Roger Congleton, 2007. "Informational limits to democratic public policy: The jury theorem, yardstick competition, and ignorance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 333-352, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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