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Determinantes del riesgo de crédito comercial en Colombia

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  • Angela González Arbeláez

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Abstract

En este trabajo se estima la probabilidad de incumplimiento de las empresas, sus determinantes y el nivel de riesgo crediticio corporativo agregado del sistema financiero. Se utiliza un modelo logit ordenado generalizado con variables explicativas que contienen información a nivel de firmas y variables macroeconómicas que no han sido utilizadas en otros trabajos para Colombia, de tal manera que se puedan capturar los efectos que tiene la dinámica de la economía sobre la probabilidad de default, diferenciando por las categorías de riesgo asociadas a los créditos corporativos. Los resultados muestran que el conjunto de variables macroeconómicas mejora el poder explicativo del modelo, a la vez que se encuentra una alta persistencia en las categorías asociadas con mayor riesgo crediticio.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Temas de Estabilidad Financiera with number 045.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:045

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Related research

Keywords: Riesgo de crédito; probabilidad de incumplimiento; logit ordenado generalizado. Classification JEL: C35; D21; E44; G21; G33.;

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  1. Nancy Eugenia Zamudio Gómez, 2007. "Determinantes de la Probabilidad de Incumplimiento de las Empresas Colombianas," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004292, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Jacobson, Tor & Kindell, Rikard & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2008. "Firm Default and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Paper Series 226, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  3. Jose Eduardo Gómez & Paola Morales Acevedo & Fernando Pineda & Nancy Zamudio, 2007. "An Alternative Methodology for Estimating Credit Quality Transition Matrices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004395, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
  5. Oscar Martínez, 2003. "Determinantes De Fragilidad En Las Empresas Colombianas," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002300, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Yatchew, Adonis & Griliches, Zvi, 1985. "Specification Error in Probit Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 134-39, February.
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