Determinantes de Fragilidad en las Empresas Colombianas

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Determinantes de Fragilidad en las Empresas Colombianas

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Oscar Martínez A. ()

Abstract

Una de las mayores amenazas para toda empresa es caer en un estado de insolvencia. Este tipo de amenaza a la estabilidad financiera de las empresas es relevante no solo para inversionistas y empleados, sino también para prestamistas del sector financiero, auditores y autoridades reguladoras entre otros. Usando técnicas de regresión probit este estudio desarrolla un modelo en el que se identifican las variables relevantes para pronosticar el estrés o fragilidad financiera de las empresas en Colombia en el año 2001. A partir de los estados financieros que 9000 empresas reportaron en el año 2000, el modelo identificó correctamente al 82% de las empresas frágiles y no frágiles. Los resultados confirman la importancia de los indicadores de rentabilidad, endeudamiento y liquidez en la solvencia presentada por las empresas, puntualmente la utilidad antes de impuestos sobre activo, obligaciones financieras sobre activo y disponible sobre activo respectivamente.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 259.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:259

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2004-02-29 (All new papers)
NEP-CFN-2004-02-29 (Corporate Finance)

References listed on IDEAS
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Platt, Harlan D. & Platt, Marjorie B., 1991. "A note on the use of industry-relative ratios in bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1183-1194, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1991. " The Theory of Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 297-355, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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