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An Alternative Methodology for Estimating Credit Quality Transition Matrices

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  • Jose E. Gómez

    ()

  • Paola Morales

    ()

  • Fernando Pineda

    ()

  • nzamudgo@banrep.gov.co

Abstract

This study presents an alternative way of estimating credit transition matrices using a hazard function model. The model is useful both for testing the validity of the Markovian assumption, frequently made in credit rating applications, and also for estimating transition matrices conditioning on firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates that influence the migration process. The model presented in the paper is likely to be useful in other applications, though we would hesitate to extrapolate numerical values of coefficients outside of our application. Transition matrices estimated this way may be an important tool for a credit risk administration system, in the sense that with them a practitioner can easily forecast the behavior of the clients´ratings in the future and their possible changes of state

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 478.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:478

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Keywords: Firms; macroeconomic variables; firm-specific covariates; hazard function; transition intensities. Classification JEL: C4; E44; G21; G23; G38.;

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  1. Mahlmann, Thomas, 2006. "Estimation of rating class transition probabilities with incomplete data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3235-3256, November.
  2. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  3. Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
  4. Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  5. José E. Gómez-González & Nicholas M. Kiefer., 2009. "Evidence of Non-Markovian Behavior in the Process of Bank Rating Migrations," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 46(133), pages 33-50.
  6. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
  7. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2007. "A simulation estimator for testing the time homogeneity of credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 818-835, December.
  8. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2006. "Bank Failure: Evidence from the Colombia Financial Crisis," Working Papers 06-12, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Ángela González Arbeláez, 2010. "Determinantes del riesgo del crédito comercial en Colombia," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008215, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.

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