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Evidence of Non-Markovian Behavior in the Process of Bank Rating Migrations

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  • José E. Gómez-González
  • Nicholas M. Kiefer.

Abstract

This paper estimates transition matrices for the ratings on financial institutions, using an unusually informative data set. We show that the process of rating migration exhibits significant non-Markovian behavior, in the sense that the transition intensi

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía-Latin American Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 46 (2009)
Issue (Month): 133 ()
Pages: 33-50

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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:46:y:2009:i:133:p:33-50

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Keywords: Financial institutions; macroeconomic variables; capitalization; supervision; transition intensities;

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References

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  1. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
  2. Mahlmann, Thomas, 2006. "Estimation of rating class transition probabilities with incomplete data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3235-3256, November.
  3. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2007. "A simulation estimator for testing the time homogeneity of credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 818-835, December.
  4. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
  5. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  6. N. Jonker, 2002. "Credit Ratings of the Banking Sector," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 714, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  7. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2006. "Bank Failure: Evidence from the Colombia Financial Crisis," Working Papers 06-12, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  8. Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2001. "Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn from Financial Indicators," Working Paper Series WP01-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  9. Giovanni Ferri & Li-Gang Liu, 2003. "How Do Global Credit-Rating Agencies Rate Firms from Developing Countries?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 30-56.
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Cited by:
  1. Jose Eduardo Gómez & Paola Morales Acevedo & Fernando Pineda & Nancy Zamudio, 2007. "An Alternative Methodology for Estimating Credit Quality Transition Matrices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004395, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Hinojosa, Inés Paola Orozco, 2010. "Estimation of conditional time-homogeneous credit quality transition matrices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 89-96, January.

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