We study the product turnover in an industry and, in particular, the survival of new products. The data set consists of monthly sales of all products sold in the Swedish beer market over the time period of 1989-1995. The death rates of newly introduced products are high - out of 199 products an estimated 25 percent were withdrawn within 18 months and 50 percent within approximately 48 months. We use parametric duration models with time varying covariates to estimate survival functions. Our results show that products with low and decreasing market shares have higher hazard rates. Moreover, the hazard rates are dependent on the characteristics of the producer. Products from firms with a large number of other products, and (to a lesser extent) the largest market shares are more likely to be withdrawn.
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Length: 26 pages Date of creation: Nov 1996 Date of revision: Publication status: Published in Review of Industrial Organization, 1999, pages 219-237. Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0138
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco
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