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The Survival of New Products

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  • Marcus Asplund
  • Rickard Sandin

Abstract

We study the product turnover in an industry and, in particular, the survival of new products. The data set consists of monthly sales of all products sold in the Swedish beer market over the time period of 1989-1995. The death rates of newly introduced products are high - out of 199 products an estimated 25 percent were withdrawn within 18 months and 50 percent within approximately 48 months. We use parametric duration models with time varying covariates to estimate survival functions. Our results show that products with low and decreasing market shares have higher hazard rates. Moreover, the hazard rates are dependent on the characteristics of the producer. Products from firms with a large number of other products, and (to a lesser extent) the largest market shares are more likely to be withdrawn.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1007708612713
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of Industrial Organization.

Volume (Year): 15 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 219-237

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Handle: RePEc:kap:revind:v:15:y:1999:i:3:p:219-237

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100336

Related research

Keywords: Product survival; multiproduct firms; duration model; beer market;

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References

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  1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  2. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-45, September.
  3. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
  4. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro & Guimaraes, Paulo, 1995. "The survival of new plants: Start-up conditions and post-entry evolution," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-481, December.
  5. Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
  6. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  7. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  8. Raubitschek, Ruth S., 1988. "Hitting the jackpot: Product proliferation by multiproduct firms under uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 469-488.
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Cited by:
  1. Euy-Young Jung & Chulwoo Baek & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2012. "Product survival analysis for the App Store," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 929-941, December.
  2. Elizabeth Webster & Paul H. Jensen, 2011. "Do Patents Matter for Commercialization?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 431 - 453.
  3. Ma, Xingliang & Shi, Guanming, 2010. "GM vs. Non-GM: A Survival Analysis of Hybrid Seed Corn in the US," Staff Paper Series 553, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  4. Mª José Moral & Jordi Jaumandreu, . "Automobile demand, model cycle and price effects," Studies on the Spanish Economy 64, FEDEA.
  5. María Moral & Jordi Jaumandreu, 2007. "Automobile demand, model cycle and age effects," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 193-218, September.

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