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Monetary Policy Forecasting in a DSGE Model with Data that is Uncertain, Unbalanced and About the Future

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  • Andrés González Gómez

    ()

  • Lavan Mahadeva

    ()

  • Diego Rodríguez

    ()

  • Luis Eduardo Rojas

    ()

Abstract

If theory-consistent models can ever hope to forecast well and to be useful for policy, they have to relate to data which though rich in information is uncertain, unbalanced and sometimes forecasts from external sources about the future path of other variables. One example from many is financial market data, which can help but only after smoothing out irrelevant short-term volatility. In this paper we propose combining different types of useful but awkward data set with a linearised forward-looking DSGE model through a Kalman Filter fixed-interval smoother to improve the utility of these models as policy tools. We apply this scheme to a model for Colombia.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 559.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:559

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Keywords: Monetary Policy; DSGE; Forecast; Kalman Filter Classification JEL: F47; E01; C61.;

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References

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  1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
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  9. Andrés González & Lavan Mahadeva & Juan D. Prada & Diego Rodríguez, . "Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs: PATACON Model Description," Borradores de Economia 656, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. Michel Juillard & Douglas Laxton, 1996. "A Robust and Efficient Method for Solving Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," IMF Working Papers 96/106, International Monetary Fund.
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  15. Harald Uhlig, 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March.
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  18. Swanson, Eric T., 2004. "Signal Extraction And Non-Certainty-Equivalence In Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(01), pages 27-50, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Luis E. Rojas, . "Professional Forecasters: How to Understand and Exploit Them Through a DSGE Model," Borradores de Economia 664, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Andrés González & Lavan Mahadeva & Juan D. Prada & Diego Rodríguez, . "Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs: PATACON Model Description," Borradores de Economia 656, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Ramiro Rodríguez Revilla, 2011. "Modelos de equilibrio general dinámicos y estocásticos para Colombia 1995-2011," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.

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