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Efectividad del Control a los Flujos de Capital: Un Reexamen Empírico de la Experiencia Reciente en Colombia

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  • Hernán Rincón

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Abstract

Este trabajo utiliza una medida de los flujos de capital privado de corto plazo y variables que buscan capturar los niveles de los créditos comerciales y de las transacciones internacionales y factores de expulsión y atracción para evaluar la efectividad de los controles de capital, específicamente de un depósito no remunerado sobre los flujos de crédito externo, en el caso colombiano. Se utiliza la metodología de Johansen y Juselius la cual permite usar directamente variables no estacionarias en las estimaciones y controlar por problemas de simultaneidad. La conclusión principal es que los controles han sido efectivos en disminuir los flujos de capital de corto plazo. La evidencia resalta también el papel jugado por factores de expulsión y atracción en la determinación de los flujos de crédito externo y muestra que la hipótesis de paridad descubierta de interés, ajustada por una prima de riesgo, no es satisfecha por los datos.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 132.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:132

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Keywords: Paridad Descubierta de Interés; Flujos de Capital; Depósito; Impuesto; Modelo de Corrección de Errores.;

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  1. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  16. Alberto Alesina & Vittorio Grilli & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 4353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, 2000. "The Colombian Economy In The Nineties: Capital Flows And Foreign Exchange Regimes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003575, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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