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Efectividad del Control a los Flujos de Capital: Un Reexamen Empírico de la Experiencia Reciente en Colombia

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Author Info
Hernán Rincón ()

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Abstract

Este trabajo utiliza una medida de los flujos de capital privado de corto plazo y variables que buscan capturar los niveles de los créditos comerciales y de las transacciones internacionales y factores de expulsión y atracción para evaluar la efectividad de los controles de capital, específicamente de un depósito no remunerado sobre los flujos de crédito externo, en el caso colombiano. Se utiliza la metodología de Johansen y Juselius la cual permite usar directamente variables no estacionarias en las estimaciones y controlar por problemas de simultaneidad. La conclusión principal es que los controles han sido efectivos en disminuir los flujos de capital de corto plazo. La evidencia resalta también el papel jugado por factores de expulsión y atracción en la determinación de los flujos de crédito externo y muestra que la hipótesis de paridad descubierta de interés, ajustada por una prima de riesgo, no es satisfecha por los datos.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 132.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:132

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Related research
Keywords: Paridad Descubierta de Interés; Flujos de Capital; Depósito; Impuesto; Modelo de Corrección de Errores.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation
G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hernán Rincón, 1999. "Testing The Short And Long Run Exchange Rate Effects On The Trade Balance: The Case Of Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alesina, Alberto F & Grilli, Vittorio & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  6. A Alesina & V Grilli & G Milesi-Feretti, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEP Discussion Papers dp0169, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Mark Taylor, 1987. "Risk premia and foreign exchange: A multiple time series approach to testing uncovered interest-rate parity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 123(4), pages 579-591, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 506, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," NBER Working Papers 5352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Peter J. Quirk & Owen Evens, 1995. "Capital Account Convertibility: Review of Experience and Implications for IMF Policies," IMF Occasional Papers 131, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Davidson, James E H, 1985. "Econometric Modelling of the Sterling Effective Exchange Rate," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2), pages 231-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Salvador Valdés-Prieto & Marcelo Soto, 1998. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 133-164, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. MacDonald, Ronald & Torrance, Thomas S, 1990. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Four Foreign Exchange Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 544-61, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, . "The Colombian Economy in the nineties: Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Regimes," Borradores de Economia 149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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