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Optimal fiscal policy when agents fear government default

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  • Francesco Caprioli

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

  • Pietro Rizza

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

  • Pietro Tommasino

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We derive the optimal fiscal policy for a government that is committed to honoring its debt but faces investors which fear a sovereign default. We assume that investors are able to learn from new evidence, as in Marcet and Sargent (1989), so that they can gradually correct their overly pessimistic view about the government's creditworthiness. We show that in an economy with these features, contrary to the prescriptions of standard models, a frontloaded fiscal consolidation after an adverse fiscal shock is optimal.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 859.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_859_12

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Keywords: Ramsey-optimal fiscal policy; non-contingent public debt; learning.;

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Blog mentions

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  1. What to do when people expect the government to default on its debt
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-05-16 14:13:00

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