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Unemployment Fluctuations in a Small Open-Economy Model with Segmented Labour Markets: The Case of Canada

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  • Yahong Zhang

Abstract

The recent financial crisis and subsequent recession have spurred great interest in the sources of unemployment fluctuations. Previous studies predominantly assume a single economy-wide labour market, and therefore abstract from differences across sector-specific labour markets in the economy. In Canada, such differences are substantial. From 1991 to 2010, employment in the tradable sector is almost three times as volatile as that in the non-tradable sector, and wages are about twice as volatile. To capture the labour market differences at the sectoral level, I introduce a segmented labour market structure to a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with financial and labour market frictions and estimate the model using Canadian data from 1991 to 2010. I find that, in the long run, unemployment fluctuations are mainly driven by the shocks to firms’ net worth and production technology in the non-tradable sector and the shocks to the foreign interest rate. In the short run, however, it is the shocks to firms’ net worth in the tradable sector that account for about 50 per cent of unemployment fluctuations. I also find that inclusion of the recent financial crisis data in the estimation is crucial for assessing the effects of the financial wealth shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Yahong Zhang, 2013. "Unemployment Fluctuations in a Small Open-Economy Model with Segmented Labour Markets: The Case of Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-40, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Caterina Mendicino & Yahong Zhang, 2016. "Risk Shocks in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 1602, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    2. Mendicino, Caterina & Zhang, Yahong, 2018. "Risk shocks in a small open economy: Business cycle dynamics in Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 391-409.
    3. Chang Wen-ya & Tsai Hsueh-fang & Chang Juin-jen & Lin Hsieh-yu, 2018. "Interest rate rules and equilibrium (in)determinacy in a small open economy: the role of internationally traded capital," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Craighead, William D., 2014. "Monetary rules and sectoral unemployment in open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 277-292.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Economic models; Labour markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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