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Why Do Emerging Markets Liberalize Capital Outflow Controls? Fiscal versus Net Capital Flow Concerns

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Gurnain Pasricha

Abstract

In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the factors that motivated emerging economies to change their capital outflow controls in recent decades. Liberalization of capital outflow controls can allow emerging-market economies (EMEs) to reduce net capital inflow (NKI) pressures, but may cost their governments the fiscal revenues that external financial repression generates. Our results indicate that external repression revenues in EMEs declined substantially in the 2000s compared with the 1980s. In line with this decline in external repression revenues and their growth accelerations in the 2000s, concerns related to net capital inflows took predominance over fiscal concerns in the decisions to liberalize capital outflow controls. Overheating and foreign exchange valuation concerns arising from NKI pressures were important, but so were financial stability concerns and concerns about macroeconomic volatility. Emerging markets facing high volatility in net capital inflows and higher short-term balance-sheet exposures liberalized outflows less. Countries eased outflows more in response to higher appreciation pressures in the exchange market, stock market appreciation, real exchange rate volatility, net capital inflows and accumulation of reserves.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 13-21.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-21

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Keywords: Debt Management; Financial system regulation and policies; International topics; Recent economic and financial developments;

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References

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  1. Vittorio Grilli & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1995. "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 517-551, September.
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Pablo E. Guidotti, 1990. "Capital Controls, Collection Costs, and Domestic Public Debt," NBER Working Papers 3443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Did the Indian Capital Controls Work as a Tool of Macroeconomic Policy?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(3), pages 439-464, September.
  6. Bird,Richard & Gendron,Pierre-Pascal, 2007. "The VAT in Developing and Transitional Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521877657, 9.
  7. Michael M Hutchison & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha & Nirvikar Singh, 2012. "Effectiveness of Capital Controls in India: Evidence from the Offshore NDF Market," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(3), pages 395-438, September.
  8. Christoph Trebesch & Michael G Papaioannou & Udaibir S. Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010," IMF Working Papers 12/203, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Broner, Fernando A & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio, 2011. "Gross Capital Flows: Dynamics and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 8591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2006. "Globalization and Developing Countries - a Shrinking Tax Base ?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8r12k4xr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  11. Giovannini, Alberto & de Melo, Martha, 1993. "Government Revenue from Financial Repression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 953-63, September.
  12. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Kirkegaard, Jacob & Sbrancia, Belen, 2011. "Financial repression redux," MPRA Paper 31641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  15. Michael W. Klein, 2012. "Capital Controls: Gates versus Walls," NBER Working Papers 18526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Nancy P. Marion, 2013. "China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," NBER Working Papers 19739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrés Fernández & Alessandro Rebucci & Martín Uribe, 2013. "Are Capital Controls Prudential? An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 19671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Yin-Wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2014. "International Reserves Before and After the Global Crisis: Is There No End to Hoarding?," NBER Working Papers 20386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. G. Andrew Karolyi & David T. Ng & Eswar S. Prasad, 2013. "The Coming Wave," Working Papers 082013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  5. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2014. "Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9798, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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