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Formation and adaptation of reference prices in grain marketing: An experimental study

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  • Mattos, Fabio
  • Poirier, Jamie
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    Abstract

    This study examines formation and adaptation of reference prices by Manitoban grain producers. Research shows that preferences are reference‐dependent and marketing decisions are affected by reference prices. Results suggest that Manitoban producers’ reference prices are formed primarily by an average of recent prices and the highest price to‐date in the marketing window. Reference prices are found to adapt in the same direction as market prices, with adaptation to increasing prices being larger than adaptation to decreasing prices. When deciding to sell grain, producers are more likely to sell when they expect prices to decrease over the next month and when their reference price adjusts downwards towards the current price.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/148591
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA) in its series Working Papers with number 148591.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:spaawp:148591

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    Web page: http://servsas.fsaa.ulaval.ca/index.php?id=12482&L=1

    Related research

    Keywords: grain marketing; reference prices; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C93; D03; D81; Q13;

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    1. Arkes, Hal R. & Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & Lim, Sonya, 2008. "Reference point adaptation: Tests in the domain of security trading," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 67-81, January.
    2. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
    3. Matthew T. G. Meulenberg & Joost M. E. Pennings, 2002. "A Marketing Approach to Commodity Futures Exchanges: A Case Study of the Dutch Hog Industry," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 51-64.
    4. Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Akshay R. Rao, 2002. "Close Encounters of Two Kinds: False Alarms and Dashed Hopes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(2), pages 178-196, August.
    5. Selten, Reinhard, 1991. "Properties of a measure of predictive success," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-167, April.
    6. Constantinides, George M, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence: Discussion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 791-92, July.
    7. Lin, Chien-Huang & Huang, Wen-Hsien & Zeelenberg, Marcel, 2006. "Multiple reference points in investor regret," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 781-792, December.
    8. McNew, Kevin & Musser, Wesley N., 2002. "Farmer Forward Pricing Behavior: Evidence from Marketing Clubs," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 31(2), October.
    9. Sullivan, Kathryn & Kida, Thomas, 1995. "The Effect of Multiple Reference Points and Prior Gains and Losses on Managers' Risky Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 76-83, October.
    10. Manel Baucells & Martin Weber & Frank Welfens, 2011. "Reference-Point Formation and Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 506-519, March.
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