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Impact du taux de change sur la sécurité alimentaire des pays en développement

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  • Huchet Bourdon, Marilyne
  • Laroche Dupraz, Catherine
  • Sénadin, Anned-Linz

Abstract

L’épisode de hausse de prix des produits agricoles sur la période 2006-2008 a remis au coeur des préoccupations internationales la question de la sécurité alimentaire mondiale. Dans ce contexte, les Pays les Moins Avancés sont passés, depuis le début des années 1990, d’une situation d’exportateurs nets à celle d’importateurs nets de produits agricoles. Par ailleurs, ces dernières années ont aussi été marquées par de vifs débats sur les taux de change, comme en témoigne la querelle des monnaies Yuan/dollar. Dans la lignée de la littérature sur la relation entre le taux de change et le commerce, l’objectif de cet article est d’évaluer la relation entre le taux de change et la sécurité alimentaire sur la période 1995-2010 sur un échantillon de 24 à 72 pays en développement. En outre, l’article propose un cadre théorique visant à mettre en évidence les liens économiques entre la sécurité alimentaire, mesurée par l’indicateur de Bonilla, la valeur des monnaies des pays et les termes de l’échange international. Cette analyse théorique suggère qu’une dépréciation de la monnaie nationale se traduit à court terme par une détérioration de la sécurité alimentaire au sens de Bonilla en raison du renchérissement des importations alimentaires et de la diminution des recettes d’exportations et une relation à long terme dépendant des élasticités-prix de la demande d’importations alimentaires, de l’offre d’exportations totales et du rapport entre les prix alimentaires importés et les prix des autres produits importés. Enfin, les deux études de cas proposées (l’une portant sur la Gambie, l’autre sur la Côté d’Ivoire) suggèrent que le taux de change n’est pas le seul déterminant de l’insécurité alimentaire. D’autres variables telles que les investissements, le niveau des droits de douane, les termes de l’échange, l’offre de monnaie et la stabilité politique influencent le niveau de sécurité alimentaire.

Suggested Citation

  • Huchet Bourdon, Marilyne & Laroche Dupraz, Catherine & Sénadin, Anned-Linz, 2013. "Impact du taux de change sur la sécurité alimentaire des pays en développement," Working Papers 207856, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:inrasl:207856
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.207856
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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