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Alternative subsidy reduction paths: the role of fiscal and monetary policy linkages

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  • Ardeni, Pier-Giorgio
  • Rausser, Gordon C.

Abstract

In the case of U. S. agricultural policy, this paper shows how governmental intervention can be formally incorporated in a conditional-vector-error-correcting model. From the resulting theoretical framework and empirical analysis, formal hypotheses are tested regarding both forward and backward linkages among money, exchange rates, and agricultural and non-agricultural markets. Consistent with the current Uruguay Round of the GATT negotiations, a number of policy simulations are conducted with the constructed with the constructed empirical model. Phased reductions in the degree of subsidization in the U.S. agricultural sector are shown, through these policy simulations, to alter the feedback effects from money to prices as well as the dynamic path for exchange rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley in its series Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series with number qt5074f3vq.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 1990
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt5074f3vq

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Keywords: agricultural policies; exchange rates; fiscal policy; monetary policy; Social and Behavioral Sciences;

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  1. Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September.
  2. Fischer, Stanley, 1982. "Relative price variability and inflation in the United States and Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 171-196.
  3. Ardeni, Pier-Giorgio & Rausser, Gordon C., 1992. "Interactions among money, exchange rates, and commodity prices," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt8bg30713, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  4. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Rausser, Gordon C., 1985. "Agriculture, trade, and macroeconomics," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7gb46609, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  6. Fischer, Stanley, 1982. "Relative price variability and inflation in the United States and Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 171-196.
  7. Arthur M. Okun, 1975. "Inflation: Its Mechanics and Welfare Costs," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 351-402.
  8. Chambers, Robert G. & Just, Richard E., 1982. "An investigation of the effect of monetary factors on agriculture," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 235-247.
  9. Rausser, Gordon C. & Chalfant, James A. & Love, H. Alan & Stamoulis, Kostas G., 1986. "Macroeconomic linkages, taxes, and subsidies in the U.S. agricultural sector," CUDARE Working Paper Series 393, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  10. Cukierman, Alex & Wachtel, Paul, 1982. "Relative Price Variability and Nonuniform Inflationary Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 146-57, February.
  11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  12. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
  13. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
  14. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  15. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  16. Cukierman, Alex, 1979. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level: A Suggested Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 444-47, June.
  17. Cukierman, Alex & Wachtel, Paul, 1979. "Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 595-609, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2005. "The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on the Hungarian Agriculture," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19232, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2009. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy: The Case of Hungary," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51798, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2005. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24711, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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