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An Examination of the Relationship between Food Prices and Government Monetary Policies in Iran

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  • Shahnoushi, Naser
  • Henneberry, Shida Rastegari
  • Manssori, Hooman
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    Abstract

    This study examines the relationship between food prices and monetary policy variables, using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach applied to annual data from 1976 to 2006. Results indicate that food prices in Iran have a long-run and short-run equilibrium granger causality relationship with money supply. More specifically, monetary policy reforms are shown to have a significant impact on food prices and domestic agricultural production. These policies influence consumption patterns and have serious implications for poverty reduction, food security issues, and agricultural growth in Iran.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46078
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia with number 46078.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:saeana:46078

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    Keywords: VEC model; food Prices; monetary policy; Iran; Agricultural and Food Policy;

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    1. Orden, David, 1986. "Money and Agriculture: The Dynamics of Money Financial Market-Agricultural Trade Linkages," Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 3.
    2. Shih-wen Hu & Vey Wang, 1996. "Commodity Price Dynamics and Anticipated Shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 982-990.
    3. Joseph Kargbo, 2000. "Impacts of monetary and macroeconomic factors on food prices in eastern and southern Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(11), pages 1373-1389.
    4. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1985. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 425-38, November.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2005. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24711, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
    9. Peng, Xuehua & Marchant, Mary A. & Reed, Michael R., 2004. "Identifying Monetary Impacts On Food Prices In China: A Vec Model Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20315, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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