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Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy: The Case of Hungary

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  • Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan
  • Ferto, Imre

Abstract

This article examines the impacts of monetary policy on agricultural prices in the Hungarian economy using time series analysis. The empirical results indicate that agricultural prices adjust faster to monetary shocks than industrial prices do, affecting relative agricultural prices in the short run, but strict long-run money neutrality does not hold. We also find that the exchange rate as a flexible sector variable, adjusts faster to temporary shocks than the sticky, industrial prices. This implies that in a case of monetary shocks the agricultural sector associated with flexible changes bears the burden of adjustment vis-à-vis the sectors with sticky changes. These macroeconomic effects are reflected in real agricultural price volatility and the agricultural sector by reducing the financial viability of the farmers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China with number 51798.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51798

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Web page: http://www.iaae-agecon.org/
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Keywords: Overshooting of agricultural prices; money neutrality; cointegration; transition economy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics;

References

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  1. Orden, David, 1986. "Agriculture, trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-51.
  2. Zanias, George P, 1998. "Inflation, Agricultural Prices and Economic Convergence in Greece," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 19-29.
  3. Ardeni, Pier-Giorgio & Rausser, Gordon C., 1990. "Alternative subsidy reduction paths : the role of fiscal and monetary policy linkages," CUDARE Working Paper Series 566, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  4. Scott Rozelle & Johan F.M. Swinnen, 2004. "Success and Failure of Reform: Insights from the Transition of Agriculture," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 404-456, June.
  5. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Shih-wen Hu & Vey Wang, 1996. "Commodity Price Dynamics and Anticipated Shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 982-990.
  7. Peng, Xuehua & Marchant, Mary A. & Reed, Michael R., 2004. "Identifying Monetary Impacts On Food Prices In China: A Vec Model Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20315, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  8. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
  9. Brooks, Karen & Nash, John, 2002. "The rural sector in transition economies," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 30, pages 1547-1592 Elsevier.
  10. J. S. Taylor & John Spriggs, 1989. "Effects of the Monetary Macro-economy on Canadian Agricultural Prices," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 278-89, May.
  11. Grennes, Thomas & Lapp, John S., 1986. "Neutrality of inflation in the agricultural sector," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 231-243, June.
  12. Sayed H. Saghaian & Michael R. Reed & Mary A. Marchant, 2002. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in an Open Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 90-103.
  13. Nedka Ivanova & Philip Dawson & John Lingard, 2003. "Macroeconomic Impacts on Bulgarian Agriculture during Transition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 817-823.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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