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Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy: The Case of Slovenia

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Author Info
Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan
Bojnec, Stefan
Ferto, Imre

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Abstract

The paper focus on the time adjustment paths of the exchange rate and agricultural producer and industrial prices in response to unanticipated monetary shocks following model developed by Saghaian et al. (2002). Results indicate that agricultural prices adjust faster than industrial prices to innovations in the money supply, affecting relative prices in the short run, but strict long-run money neutrality does not hold. The impulse response analysis shows that an exogenous shock to the money supply has a significant and volatile effect on the three price variables. The extent of overshooting in agricultural prices is twice as large as for exchange rates or industrial prices. This indicates that in the case of monetary shocks the sectors associated with flexible changes bear the burden of adjustment vis-Ã -vis the sectors with sticky changes.The exchange rate pass-through on agricultural producer prices revealed by the forecast error variance analysis indicates the relatively greater importance of the exchange rate than the money supply in explaining the expected variation of the agricultural producer price. This is consistent with floating exchange rate policy, while agricultural trade policy for sensitive products has been more restricted until Slovenia joined the European Union.

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Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 103rd Seminar, April 23-25, 2007, Barcelona, Spain with number 9422.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa103:9422

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Related research
Keywords: agricultural prices; exchange rates; monetary shocks; overshooting; transition economy; Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade;

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  1. Saghaian, Sayed H & Reed, Michael R & Marchant, Mary A, 2002. " Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in an Open Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 90-103, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Orden, David, 1986. "Agriculture, trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Nedka Ivanova & Philip Dawson & John Lingard, 2003. "Macroeconomic Impacts on Bulgarian Agriculture during Transition," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 817-823, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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