IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/voj/journl/v66y2019i4p411-437id412.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: A Study for Four Selected Commodity Exporting Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriela Mordecki
  • Ronald Miranda

Abstract

Commodity exports depend on global demand and prices, but the increasing volatility of real exchange rates (RER) introduces an additional factor. Thus, this paper studies the RER volatility dynamics, estimated through GARCH and IGARCH models for Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and Uruguay from 1990 to 2013. We study the impact of RER volatility on total exports using Johansen's methodology, including proxies for global demand and international prices. The results suggest that exports depend positively on global demand and international prices for all countries; however, conditional RER volatility resulted significant and negative only for Uruguay, in the short and long run. Key words: Exports, Real exchange rate, GARCH, Co-integration.JEL: C55, F31, F41. Volatilnost realnog deviznog kursa i izvoz: studija o četiri odabrane zemlje izvoznice robe Robni izvoz zavisi od globalne tražnje i cena, ali sve veća volatilnost realnih deviznih kurseva (RER) predstavlja dodatni faktor. U radu se proučava dinamika volatilnosti RER-a, ocenjena kroz GARCH i IGARCH model za Brazil, Čile, Novi Zeland i Urugvaj od 1990. do 2013. Ispitujemo uticaj nestabilnosti RER-a na ukupni izvoz primenom Johansenove metodologije, uvođenjem veštačkih promenljivih za globalnu tražnju i međunarodne cene. Rezultati sugerišu da izvoz pozitivno zavisi od globalne tražnje i međunarodnih cena za sve zemlje; međutim, uslovna volatilnost RER-a bila je značajna i negativna samo za Urugvaj, u kratkom i dugom roku. Ključne reči: Izvoz, realni devizni kurs, GARCH, kointegracija.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriela Mordecki & Ronald Miranda, 2019. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: A Study for Four Selected Commodity Exporting Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 66(4), pages 411-437.
    • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:66:y:2019:i:4:p:411-437:id:412
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://panoeconomicus.org/index.php/jorunal/article/view/412/550
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Eithne Murphy, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Short-run and Long-run Irish Export Functions: Does exchange rate volatility matter?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 193-208.
    2. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Glauco De vita & Andrew Abbott, 2004. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on UK Exports to EU Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(1), pages 62-81, February.
    4. Saang Joon Baak & M. A. Al-Mahmood & S. Vixathep, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(8), pages 947-959.
    5. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
    9. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2013. "The effects of exchange-rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 70-93.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    12. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    14. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    15. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    17. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    18. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    19. Ozturk, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 85-102.
    20. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Masatci, Kaan & Pılbeam, Keith, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 133-140.
    21. Antonio Aguirre & Afonso Ferreira & Hilton Notini, 2007. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Brazilian Manufactured Exports," Económica, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0(1-2), pages 3-19, January-D.
    22. Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 2001. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate regime, and trade volume: evidence from the UK-US export function (1889-1999)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 87-94, July.
    23. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2009. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Changes: The Cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 199-226, June.
    24. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
    25. Bruno Coric & Geoff Pugh, 2010. "The effects of exchange rate variability on international trade: a meta-regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(20), pages 2631-2644.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ronald Miranda & Gabriela Mordecki, 2015. "Real exchange rate volatility impact on exports: A comparative study 1990-2013," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 15-18, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    2. Yusaku Nishimura & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "China’s Exchange-Rate Regime Reform and Trade Between China and the Eurozone," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 450-467, January.
    3. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
    4. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    5. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Masatci, Kaan & Pılbeam, Keith, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 133-140.
    6. Jonathan M. Chipili, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows in Zambia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 55-66, March.
    7. Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo, 2021. "The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 18(2), pages 57-81, Julio-Dic.
    8. Innocent U Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh & Benedict I Uzoechina & Gabriel O Ebenyi & Ekechi Chukwuka, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Nigerian Scenario," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 12(1), pages 11-28.
    9. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Berke, Burcu & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Exchange rate volatility in the eurozone," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-23.
    10. James Temitope Dada, 2020. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on trade in sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(2), pages 149-162, July.
    11. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-71, March.
    12. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    13. Pål Boug & Andreas Fagereng, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export performance: a cointegrated VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 851-864.
    14. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    15. Cueyt SEVIM & Taylan Taner DOGAN, 2016. "Turkiye Ekonomisinde Ihracat ve Doviz Kuru Oynakligi Iliskisi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 303-318.
    16. Duc Hong Vo & Anh The Vo & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2019. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Disaggregated Manufacturing Exports: Evidence from an Emerging Country," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, January.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 51-102, February.
    18. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Are the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Mexico symmetric or asymmetric?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2998-3027, April.
    20. Gabriel Pino & Dilara Tas & Subhash C. Sharma, 2016. "An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2397-2411, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exports; Real exchange rate; GARCH; Co-integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:66:y:2019:i:4:p:411-437:id:412. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivana Horvat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://panoeconomicus.org/index.php/jorunal/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.