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Climate Change, Weather Shocks and Violent Conflict: A Critical Look at the Evidence

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  • Klomp, Jeroen
  • Bulte, Erwin H.

Abstract

We use cross-country data to explore whether temperature and rainfall shocks trigger violent conflict, or not. We include a wide range of country and time samples, and explore whether the impact of weather shocks is conditional on income or political regimes. Our overall conclusion is sobering. Notwithstanding the attention this topic has attracted from the media and policy makers, we find little robust evidence linking weather shocks to the onset of conflict.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/125861
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil with number 125861.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:125861

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Web page: http://www.iaae-agecon.org/
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Related research

Keywords: climate change; temperature; rainfall; violence; Africa; resource scarcity.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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  1. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
  2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Development and Comp Systems 0409007, EconWPA.
  3. Antonio Ciccone, 2008. "Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment," Economics Working Papers 1127, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2011.
  4. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath, 2011. "Re-examining Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 228-32, October.
  5. Christopher K Butler & Scott Gates, 2012. "African range wars: Climate, conflict, and property rights," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 23-34, January.
  6. Tor A Benjaminsen & Koffi Alinon & Halvard Buhaug & Jill Tove Buseth, 2012. "Does climate change drive land-use conflicts in the Sahel?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 97-111, January.
  7. Clionadh Raleigh & Dominic Kniveton, 2012. "Come rain or shine: An analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 51-64, January.
  8. Dean P. Foster & Daniel B. Nelson, 1994. "Continuous Record Asymptotics for Rolling Sample Variance Estimators," NBER Technical Working Papers 0163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Erwin Bulte, 2008. "Natural Resources and Violent Conflict: Resource Abundance, Dependence and the Onset of Civil Wars," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/78, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  10. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  11. Jaroslav Tir & Douglas M Stinnett, 2012. "Weathering climate change: Can institutions mitigate international water conflict?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 211-225, January.
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