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Climate Change, Weather Shocks and Violent Conflict: A Critical Look at the Evidence

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  • Klomp, Jeroen
  • Bulte, Erwin H.

Abstract

We use cross-country data to explore whether temperature and rainfall shocks trigger violent conflict, or not. We include a wide range of country and time samples, and explore whether the impact of weather shocks is conditional on income or political regimes. Our overall conclusion is sobering. Notwithstanding the attention this topic has attracted from the media and policy makers, we find little robust evidence linking weather shocks to the onset of conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Klomp, Jeroen & Bulte, Erwin H., 2012. "Climate Change, Weather Shocks and Violent Conflict: A Critical Look at the Evidence," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125861, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:125861
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.125861
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    Cited by:

    1. Papaioannou, Kostadis J. & de Haas, Michiel, 2017. "Weather Shocks and Agricultural Commercialization in Colonial Tropical Africa: Did Cash Crops Alleviate Social Distress?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 346-365.
    2. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Communal violence in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño," Working Papers 201617, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. H. Buhaug & J. Nordkvelle & T. Bernauer & T. Böhmelt & M. Brzoska & J. Busby & A. Ciccone & H. Fjelde & E. Gartzke & N. Gleditsch & J. Goldstone & H. Hegre & H. Holtermann & V. Koubi & J. Link & P. Li, 2014. "One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 391-397, December.
    4. Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Apocalypse now? - Climate change and war in Africa," Working Papers 201816, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    5. Fujin Yi & Mengfei Zhou & Yu Yvette Zhang, 2020. "Value of Incorporating ENSO Forecast in Crop Insurance Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 439-457, March.
    6. Nicolas Gatti & Kathy Baylis & Benjamin Crost, 2021. "Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 211-231, January.
    7. Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.
    8. Michael Brzoska, 2019. "Understanding the Disaster–Migration–Violent Conflict Nexus in a Warming World: The Importance of International Policy Interventions," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-17, May.
    9. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 201618, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    10. van Weezel, Stijn, 2020. "Local warming and violent armed conflict in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Hunsberger, Carol & Work, Courtney & Herre, Roman, 2018. "Linking climate change strategies and land conflicts in Cambodia: Evidence from the Greater Aural region," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 309-320.
    12. Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Guillaume Pierre, 2022. "Weather shocks, traders' expectations, and food prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(3), pages 1100-1119, May.
    13. Kostadis J. Papaioannou & Michiel de Haas, 2015. "Climate shocks, cash crops and resilience: Evidence from colonial tropical Africa," Working Papers 0076, Utrecht University, Centre for Global Economic History.
    14. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    15. Exenberger Andreas & Pondorfer Andreas, 2013. "Climate Change and the Risk of Mass Violence: Africa in the 21st Century," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 381-392, December.

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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;
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