Come rain or shine: An analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa
AbstractPrevious research on environment and security has contested the existence, nature and significance of a climate driver of conflict. In this study, we have focused on small-scale conflict over East Africa where the link between resource availability and conflict is assumed to be more immediate and direct. Using the parameter of rainfall variability to explore the marginal influence of the climate on conflict, the article shows that in locations that experience rebel or communal conflict events, the frequency of these events increases in periods of extreme rainfall variation, irrespective of the sign of the rainfall change. Further, these results lend support to both a ‘zero-sum’ narrative, where conflicting groups use force and violence to compete for ever-scarcer resources, and an ‘abundance’ narrative, where resources spur rent-seeking/wealth-seeking and recruitment of people to participate in violence. Within the context of current uncertainty regarding the future direction of rainfall change over much of Africa, these results imply that small-scale conflict is likely to be exacerbated with increases in rainfall variability if the mean climate remains largely unchanged; preferentially higher rates of rebel conflict will be exhibited in anomalously dry conditions, while higher rates of communal conflict are expected in increasingly anomalous wet conditions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Peace Research Institute Oslo in its journal Journal of Peace Research.
Volume (Year): 49 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.prio.no/
civil war; communal violence; East Africa; environment; rainfall;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Calderone, Margherita & Maystadt, Jean-Francois & You, Liangzhi, 2013.
"Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan,"
Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
urn:hdl:123456789/403654, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Margherita Calderone & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Liangzhi You, 2013. "Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan," HiCN Working Papers 149, Households in Conflict Network.
- Calderone, Margherita & Maystadt, Jean-Francois & You, Liangzhi, 2013. "Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan:," IFPRI discussion papers 1276, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Klomp, Jeroen & Bulte, Erwin H., 2012. "Climate Change, Weather Shocks and Violent Conflict: A Critical Look at the Evidence," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125861, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.