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From Expert Elicitations to Integrated Assessment: Future Prospects of Carbon Capture Technologies

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  • Ricci, Elena Claire
  • Bosetti, Valentina
  • Baker, Erin
  • Jenni, Karen E.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the future prospects of carbon capture technologies. The first part of the analysis presents and discusses the results of an expert elicitation survey on a broad range of carbon capture options. The survey collected probabilistic estimates on the future values of energy penalty under three different scenarios of R&D investments and climate policies from twelve leading European experts from both academia and industry. In the second part of the analysis, the elicitation results are used as input to an integrated assessment model. This allows us to evaluate the potentials of success of this technology within a broad mitigation portfolio of options and under different policy assumptions, in an intertemporal optimizing setting. Both parts of the work provide results that are of interest to policy-makers, integrated-assessment and energy modelers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricci, Elena Claire & Bosetti, Valentina & Baker, Erin & Jenni, Karen E., 2014. "From Expert Elicitations to Integrated Assessment: Future Prospects of Carbon Capture Technologies," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 172451, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemcl:172451
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.172451
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    1. Baker, Erin & Chon, Haewon & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2009. "Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 37-49.
    2. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Gale, John, 2004. "Geological storage of CO2: What do we know, where are the gaps and what more needs to be done?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1329-1338.
    4. Bosetti, Valentina & Catenacci, Michela & Fiorese, Giulia & Verdolini, Elena, 2012. "The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 308-317.
    5. Gunnar Luderer & Valentina Bosetti & Michael Jakob & Marian Leimbach & Jan Steckel & Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 9-37, September.
    6. Gregory F. Nemet & Erin Baker, 2009. "Demand Subsidies Versus R&D: Comparing the Uncertain Impacts of Policy on a Pre-commercial Low-carbon Energy Technology," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 49-80.
    7. Rao, Anand B. & Rubin, Edward S. & Keith, David W. & Granger Morgan, M., 2006. "Evaluation of potential cost reductions from improved amine-based CO2 capture systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3765-3772, December.
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    10. Valentina Bosetti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2007. "The WITCH Model. Structure, Baseline, Solutions," Working Papers 2007.10, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Holloway, S., 2005. "Underground sequestration of carbon dioxide—a viable greenhouse gas mitigation option," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2318-2333.
    12. Chung, Timothy S. & Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia & Johnson, Timothy L., 2011. "Expert assessments of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5609-5620, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Verdolini & Laura Díaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2018. "Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 133-153.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies;

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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