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The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey

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Author Info

  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and CMCC)

  • Michela Catenacci

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Giulia Fiorese

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano)

  • Elena Verdolini

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and CMCC)

Abstract

In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2012.01.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.01

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Keywords: Expert Elicitation; Research; Development and Demonstration; Solar Technologies;

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References

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  1. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2007. "Optimal Energy Investment and R&D Strategies to Stabilise Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Concentrations," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2007.95, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Baker, Erin & Chon, Haewon & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2009. "Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages S37-S49.
  3. Nemet, Gregory F., 2006. "Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3218-3232, November.
  4. Bosetti, Valentina & Carraro, Carlo & Massetti, Emanuele & Sgobbi, Alessandra & Tavoni, Massimo, 2009. "Optimal energy investment and R&D strategies to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 123-137, May.
  5. Michael Grubb, Carlo Carraro and John Schellnhuber, 2006. "Technological Change for Atmospheric Stabilization: Introductory Overview to the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-16.
  6. Verdolini, Elena & Galeotti, Marzio, 2011. "At home and abroad: An empirical analysis of innovation and diffusion in energy technologies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 119-134, March.
  7. Baker, Erin & Keisler, Jeffrey M., 2011. "Cellulosic biofuels: Expert views on prospects for advancement," Energy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 595-605.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Massetti, Emanuele & Ricci, Elena Claire, 2013. "An assessment of the optimal timing and size of investments in concentrated solar power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 186-203.
  2. Tommaso Biondi & Michele Moretto, 2013. "Solar Grid Parity Dynamics in Italy: A Real Option Approach," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2013.109, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Athanassoglou, Stergios & Bosetti, Valentina, 2012. "Setting environmental policy when experts disagree," MPRA Paper 57494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Giulia Fiorese & Michela Catenacci & Valentina Bosetti & Elena Verdolini, 2013. "The Power of Biomass: Experts Disclose the Potential for Success of Bioenergy Technologies," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2013.18, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  5. Michela Catenacci & Elena Verdolini & Valentina Bosetti & Giulia Fiorese & Nadia Ameli, 2012. "Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2012.93, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  6. Elena Claire Ricci & Valentina Bosetti & Erin Baker, 2014. "From Expert Elicitations to Integrated Assessment: Future Prospects of Carbon Capture Technologies," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2014.44, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  7. Purohit, Ishan & Purohit, Pallav & Shekhar, Shashaank, 2013. "Evaluating the potential of concentrating solar power generation in Northwestern India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 157-175.
  8. Giulia Fiorese & Michela Catenacci & Elena Verdolini & Valentina Bosetti, 2012. "Advanced Biofuels: Future Perspectives from an Expert Elicitation Survey," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2012.67, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  9. Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Karen E. Jenni & Elena Claire Ricci, 2014. "Facing the Experts: Survey Mode and Expert Elicitation," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2014.01, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  10. Arnaud De La Tour & Matthieu Glachant, 2013. "How do solar photovoltaic feed-in tariffs interact with solar panel and silicon prices? An empirical study," Working Papers hal-00809449, HAL.

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