Optimizing whole-farm management considering price and climate risks
AbstractWe investigate impacts of climate change (CC) and likely increases in price risks on income, income variability, utility and on adaptation responses in crop production in Western Switzerland. To this end, a bio-economic model is used that combines a crop growth model with an economic decision model non-parametrically using genetic algorithms. Our analysis focuses on the farm-level, which enables us to integrate a much wider set of potential adaptation responses in our analysis. The model is applied to four scenarios that represent likely changes in environmental conditions due to CC as well as increasing price risks due to market liberalization, and combinations thereof. It shows that CC has the larger influence on farm-level income and utility as well as on management decisions. In contrast, the increasing price variability has only small impacts on input use. However, both CC and increasing price volatility contribute to an increasing farm-level income risk.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland with number 122533.
Date of creation: 23 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Genetic Algorithms; Agricultural Modeling; Climate Change; Price risks; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-05-15 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2012-05-15 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2012-05-15 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Finger, Robert, 2012. "How strong is the “natural hedge”? The effects of crop acreage and aggregation levels," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122538, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Mark W. Rosegrant & James A. Roumasset, 1985.
"The Effect Of Fertiliser On Risk: A Heteroscedastic Production Function With Measurable Stochastic Inputs,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 29(2), pages 107-121, 08.
- Rosegrant, Mark W. & Roumasset, James A., 1985. "The Effect Of Fertiliser On Risk: A Heteroscedastic Production Function With Measurable Stochastic Inputs," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 29(02), August.
- Cramb, R. A. & Purcell, T. & Ho, T. C. S., 2004. "Participatory assessment of rural livelihoods in the Central Highlands of Vietnam," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 255-272, September.
- Robert Finger & Niklaus Lehmann, 2012. "The influence of direct payments on farmers’ hail insurance decisions," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 343-354, 05.
- Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
- Predrag Rajsic & Alfons Weersink & Markus Gandorfer, 2009. "Risk and Nitrogen Application Levels," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(2), pages 223-239, 06.
- Salvatore Di Falco & Jean-Paul Chavas & Melinda Smale, 2007. "Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands: the role of wheat variety diversity in the Tigray region, Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 36(2), pages 147-156, 03.
- Salvatore Di Falco & Jean-Paul Chavas, 2006. "Crop genetic diversity, farm productivity and the management of environmental risk in rainfed agriculture," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 289-314, September.
- El Benni, Nadja & Finger, Robert & Mann, Stefan, 2012. "The effect of agricultural policy change on income risk in Swiss agriculture," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122532, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Olivier Mahul, 2003. "Hedging price risk in the presence of crop yield and revenue insurance," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 217-239, June.
- Mayer, D. G. & Belward, J. A. & Burrage, K., 2001. "Robust parameter settings of evolutionary algorithms for the optimisation of agricultural systems models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 199-213, September.
- Lehmann, Niklaus & Finger, Robert & Klein, Tommy & Calanca, Pierluigi & Walter, Achim, 2012. "Adapting Towards Climate Change: A Bioeconomic Analysis of Winterwheat and Grain Maize," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126483, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Briner, Simon & Finger, Robert, 2012. "Bio-economic modelling of decisions under yield and price risk for suckler cow farms," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122547, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.