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Farmers' Subjective Yield Distributions: Calibration and Implications for Crop Insurance Valuation

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  • Umarov, Alisher
  • Sherrick, Bruce J.
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the role of overconfidence in explaining farmer crop insurance purchasing decisions. The authors hypothesize that overconfidence could influence the participation decision and test this hypothesis. The preliminary results indicate that farmers are overconfident; however, the relationship between overconfidence and the insurance use remains uncertain.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19396
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI with number 19396.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19396

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    Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty;

    References

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    1. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    2. Coble, Keith H. & Zuniga, Manuel & Heifner, Richard, 2003. "Evaluation of the interaction of risk management tools for cotton and soybeans," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 323-340.
    3. Kovalchik, Stephanie & Camerer, Colin F. & Grether, David M. & Plott, Charles R. & Allman, John M., 2005. "Aging and decision making: a comparison between neurologically healthy elderly and young individuals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 79-94, September.
    4. Biais, Bruno & Hilton, Denis & Mazurier, Karine & Pouget, Sébastien, 2004. "Judgmental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," IDEI Working Papers 259, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    5. Brozynski, Torsten & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2004. "The Impact of Experience on Risk Taking, Overconfidence, and Herding of Fund Managers: Complementary Survey Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-292, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    6. Nerlove, Marc & Bessler, David A., 2001. "Expectations, information and dynamics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 155-206 Elsevier.
    7. Olivier Mahul & Brian D. Wright, 2003. "Designing Optimal Crop Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(3), pages 580-589.
    8. Alba, Joseph W & Hutchinson, J Wesley, 2000. " Knowledge Calibration: What Consumers Know and What They Think They Know," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(2), pages 123-56, September.
    9. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. " Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    10. Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight & Rulon D. Pope & Jeffery R. Williams, 1996. "Modeling Farm-Level Crop Insurance Demand with Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 439-447.
    11. Vincent H. Smith & Alan E. Baquet, 1996. "The Demand for Multiple Peril Crop Insurance: Evidence from Montana Wheat Farms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 189-201.
    12. Shiva S. Makki & Agapi Somwaru, 2001. "Farmers' Participation in Crop Insurance Markets: Creating the Right Incentives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 662-667.
    13. Zanini, Fabio C. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001. "Crop Insurance Valuation Under Alternative Yield Distributions," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18953, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    14. Sherrick, Bruce J., 2002. "The Accuracy Of Producers' Probability Beliefs: Evidence And Implications For Insurance Valuation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(01), July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Bulut, Harun & Collins, Keith J., 2013. "Political Economy of Crop Insurance Risk Subsidies under Imperfect Information," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150577, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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