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Climate Change Mitigation And Future Food Consumption Patterns

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  • Valin, Hugo
  • Havlik, Petr
  • Mosnier, Aline
  • Obersteiner, Michael

Abstract

Discussions on climate change increasingly emphasize the contribution of agricultural activities to anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions. In this paper, we investigate from a supply to demand side perspective the stress between food demand and climate change challenges up until 2030. We examine how more stringent climate change mitigation policies could alter agricultural markets and put at risk the nutrition possibilities of populations. We use for this purpose GLOBIOM, an applied partial equilibrium model covering, at the world scale and a fine grid resolution, the main land-based sectors: agriculture, forestry and bioenergy. For this exercise, the model is fully linked to a semi-flexible endogenous demand system with non-linear Engel’s curves. Our results show that although forest related measures could be efficiently deployed without harming food security, a scenario of massive development of bioenergy would have more tangible impacts on food availability. Our most constraining option is a decrease in emissions from cattle, which would impose a reduction in the consumption of ruminant meat and milk. We illustrate that considering the current dynamic of consumption patterns, these latter policies, if implemented on the supply side directly, could have very uneven effects to the world’s diet and harm primarily developing countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists & Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany with number 116392.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa115:116392

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Related research

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; C61; Q11; Q24; Q54;

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References

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  1. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley, 2006. "An entropy approach to spatial disaggregation of agricultural production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 329-347, October.
  2. Spreen, Thomas H., 2006. "Price Endogenous Mathematical Programming Models and Trade Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(02), August.
  3. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2009. "World Supply and Demand of Food Commodity Calories," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1235-1242.
  4. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Jansson, Torbjörn & Heckelei, Thomas, 2009. "A new estimator for trade costs and its small sample properties," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 489-498, March.
  6. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
  7. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  8. Havlík, Petr & Schneider, Uwe A. & Schmid, Erwin & Böttcher, Hannes & Fritz, Steffen & Skalský, Rastislav & Aoki, Kentaro & Cara, Stéphane De & Kindermann, Georg & Kraxner, Florian & Leduc, Sylvai, 2011. "Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5690-5702, October.
  9. Eickhout, Bas & van Meijl, Hans & Tabeau, Andrzej & Stehfest, Elke, 2008. "The Impact of Environmental and Climate Constraints on Global Food Supply," GTAP Working Papers 2608, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  10. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2004. "A Consistent, Ad-Valorem Equivalent Measure of Applied Protection Across the World: The MAcMap-HS6 Database," Working Papers 2004-22, CEPII research center.
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Cited by:
  1. A. Reisinger & P. Havlik & K. Riahi & O. Vliet & M. Obersteiner & M. Herrero, 2013. "Implications of alternative metrics for global mitigation costs and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 677-690, April.

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