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The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?

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  • Hertel, Thomas W.

Abstract

The number of people which the world must feed is expected to increase by another 2 billion people by 2050. When coupled with significant nutritional improvements for the 2.1 billion people currently living on less than $2/day, this translates into a very substantial rise in the demand for agricultural production. Most past growth in the demand for food has been met by improvements in productivity, but there is evidence of declining growth rates for agricultural yields; climate-change is likely to have important impacts on productivity through changes in temperature and precipitation; land-based climate mitigation policies are also projected to lead to increasing pressure on agricultural lands. Meanwhile supplies of water for irrigation are under pressure, urban land use is on the rise, and demands for setting aside land for environmental purposes continue to increase. Clearly, an enormous amount of additional research on ways to deal with this potential “perfect storm” is needed. This paper highlights the explores the roles of biophysical and economic uncertainty in these projections of long run land use change, using this to suggest a future research agenda.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its series 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia with number 100557.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aare11:100557

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Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety;

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  1. Golub, Alla & W. Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "Global Economic Integration and Land Use Change," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 463-488.
  2. Ahmed , Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel , Thomas W. & Lobell, David B. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5117, The World Bank.
  3. Barr, Kanlaya Jintanakul & Babcock, Bruce A. & Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Nassar, Andre M & Harfuch, Leila, 2012. "Agricultural Land Elasticities in the United States and Brazil," Staff General Research Papers 35043, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Beckman, Jayson F. & Livingston, Michael J. & McBride, William D. & Ribaudo, Marc & MacDonald, James M., 2009. "The Extent and Characteristics of Manure Use on U.S. Cropland under Rate Restrictions," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49172, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Jette Jacobsen & Nick Hanley, 2009. "Are There Income Effects on Global Willingness to Pay for Biodiversity Conservation?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(2), pages 137-160, June.
  6. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Barbier, Edward B., 1997. "Introduction to the environmental Kuznets curve special issue," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 357-367, November.
  8. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  9. Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Lee, Huey-Lin & Rose, Steven & Sohngen, Brent, 2009. "The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 299-319, November.
  10. Jan Fidrmuc & Peter Huber, 2007. "Introduction," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 281-286, September.
  11. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
  12. Thomas W. Hertel & Kyle Stiegert & Harry Vroomen, 1996. "Nitrogen-Land Substitution in Corn Production: A Reconciliation of Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 30-40.
  13. Lubowski, Ruben & Plantinga, Andrew & Stavins, Robert, 2005. "Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks: Econometric Estimation of the Carbon Sequestration Supply Function," Working Paper Series rwp05-001, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  14. Hertel, Thomas & Rose, Steven & Tol, Richard, 2008. "Land Use in Computable General Equilibrium Models: An Overview," GTAP Working Papers 2595, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  15. Keeney, Roman & Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of U.S. Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," GTAP Working Papers 2810, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  16. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Thomas Hertel & Ruben Lubowski, 2009. "Calibration of a Land Cover Supply Function Using Transition Probabilities," GTAP Research Memoranda 2947, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  17. Sohngen, Brent & Brown, Sandra, 2006. "The influence of conversion of forest types on carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services in the South Central United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 698-708, June.
  18. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  19. Neumann, Kathleen & Verburg, Peter H. & Stehfest, Elke & Müller, Christoph, 2010. "The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(5), pages 316-326, June.
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