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The FSEC-SSPs: Shared Socio-economic Pathways for global agricultural production and their implications for on-farm management decisions

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  • Hunecke, Claudia

Abstract

The Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) are qualitative descriptions of five equally plausible, potential future scenarios related to climate change mitigation and adaptation. The FSEC-SSPs extend the SSPs framework and contribute to this literature by focusing on the global agricultural production level as its scope. We examine the drivers determining future on-farm management decisions and their outcomes regarding output and productivity, profitability, and environmental impacts. We apply a qualitative approach using semi-structured interviews and expert workshops, with its results to be implemented as a baseline in Integrated Assessment Modelling exercises. The storyline elements and the associated storylines are defined by an international group of experts in agricultural economics from both FSEC (Food System Economics Commission) and various other research institutions. Besides, bio-physical and locational factors of the farm, especially the structure of the agricultural system of the particular country and the political environment, are predicted to be significant drivers of future development. However, demand for various product groups, the availability and use of specific technologies, and the market structure are additional forces to impact production decisions. The description of typical farms for each SSP in different world regions will support the qualitative storylines.

Suggested Citation

  • Hunecke, Claudia, 2022. "The FSEC-SSPs: Shared Socio-economic Pathways for global agricultural production and their implications for on-farm management decisions," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321222, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc22:321222
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.321222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    2. Hermine Mitter & Anja-K Techene & Franz Sinabell & Katharina Helming & Kasper Kok & Jörg A Priess & Erwin Schmid & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Ian Holman & Heikki Lehtonen & Adrian Leip & Chantal Le Mouël , 2019. "A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture," Post-Print hal-02619037, HAL.
    3. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    4. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics; Farm Management;
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