IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aawewp/37317.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do fluctuations in wine stocks affect wine prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Bukenya, James O.
  • Labys, Walter C.

Abstract

Globalization and the expansion of world wine trade have caused a wine boom that together with agricultural subsidies have made fluctuations in wine inventories a more critical issue. In the case of domestic and international wine markets, little is known about intertemporal inventory adjustments and how they relate to prices. We investigate possible dynamic relations between these variables in a time series context, so as to better understand how wine producers and traders can face growing price and financial volatility. Countries for whom meaningful data series could be constructed include: Argentina, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United States. The study begins by examining the empirical evidence on inventories in these markets and their relation to prices. Stationarity tests are first performed to assess likely trends in the wine inventory and price variables. Cointegration analysis follows to analyze the stationary relationships between these variables. To explain the dynamics of this relationship, vector autoregressions have been estimated and impulse functions are computed to measure possible delays between variable reactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bukenya, James O. & Labys, Walter C., 2007. "Do fluctuations in wine stocks affect wine prices?," Working Papers 37317, American Association of Wine Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aawewp:37317
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37317
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37317/files/AAWE_WP08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.37317?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akdi, Yilmaz & Berument, Hakan & Mümin Cilasun, Seyit, 2006. "The relationship between different price indices: Evidence from Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 483-492.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 141-159, Spring.
    4. Otani, Kiyoshi, 1983. "The Price Determination in the Inventory Stock Market: A Disequilibrium Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(3), pages 709-719, October.
    5. Eichenbaum, Martin S., 1984. "Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-96, July.
    6. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399.
    7. Michael K. Wohlgenant, 1982. "Inventory Adjustment and Dynamic Winery Behavior," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(2), pages 222-231.
    8. Wright, Brian D & Williams, Jeffrey C, 1982. "The Economic Role of Commodity Storage," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 596-614, September.
    9. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    10. Newbery, David M G & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1982. "Optimal Commodity Stock-piling Rules," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 403-427, November.
    11. Orden, David, 1982. "Preliminary Empirical Evidence Concerning An Asset Theory Model Of Markets For Storable Agricultural Commodities," Staff Papers 14087, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    12. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    13. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    14. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    15. Kawai, Masahiro, 1983. "Price Volatility of Storable Commodities under Rational Expectations in Spot and Futures Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(2), pages 435-459, June.
    16. Larson, Donald Frederick & DEC, 1994. "Copper and the negative price of storage," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1282, The World Bank.
    17. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-864, September.
    18. Walter C. Labys & Bruce C. Cohen, 2006. "Trends versus cycles in global wine export shares," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(4), pages 527-537, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lucia BALDI & Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE, 2010. "Is wine a financial parachute?," Departmental Working Papers 2010-01, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    2. Lucia Baldi & Massimo Peri & Daniela Vandone, 2013. "Investing in the wine market: a country-level threshold cointegration approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 493-503, March.
    3. Carole Maurel & Françoise Pierrot & Foued Cheriet & Paul Amadieu, 2019. "Inventories in the wine industry: From sector and financial determinants to strategic behaviors," Post-Print hal-02789122, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baffes, John & Shah, Anwar, 1990. "Taxing choices in deficit reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 556, The World Bank.
    2. Humphreys, Brad R. & Maccini, Louis J. & Schuh, Scott, 2001. "Input and output inventories," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 347-375, April.
    3. Rizwan Tahir, 1995. "Defence Spending and Economic Growth: Re-examining the Issue of Causality for Pakistan and India," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1109-1117.
    4. Zhaoyong Zhang, 1996. "The Exchange Value of the Renminbi and China's Balance of Trade: An Emp irical Study," NBER Working Papers 5771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923, Elsevier.
    6. Goetz, Cole & Miljkovic, Dragan & Barabanov, Nikita, 2021. "New empirical evidence in support of the theory of price volatility of storable commodities under rational expectations in spot and futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Claire G.Gilmore & Brian Lucey & Ginette M.McManus, 2005. "The Dynamics of Central European Equity Market Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp069, IIIS.
    8. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-442 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ashfaque H. Khan & Afia Malik & Lubna Hasan, 1995. "Exports, Growth and Causality: An Application of Co-integration and Error-correction Modelling," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1001-1012.
    11. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    12. Bardsen, G. & Klovland, J.T., 1990. "Finding The Rigth Nominal Anchor: The Cointegration Of Money, Credit And Nominal Income In Norway," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 350, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    13. Mustafa Serdar Basoglu & Turhan Korkmaz & Emrah Ismail Cevik, 2014. "London Metal Exchange: Causality Relationship between the Price Series of Non-Ferrous Metal Contracts," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 726-734.
    14. Panagiotis Petris & George Dotsis & Panayotis Alexakis, 2022. "Bubble tests in the London housing market: A borough level analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1044-1063, January.
    15. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    16. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Mbazima, Daisy, 2008. "The Causal Relationship Between Government Revenue and Expenditure in Namibia," MPRA Paper 9154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.
    18. Baffes, John & Gohou, Gaston, 2005. "The co-movement between cotton and polyester prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3534, The World Bank.
    19. Utku Utkulu & Durmus Özdemir, 2005. "Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 245-266, September.
    20. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
    21. Jaebeom Kim & Jung-Min Kim, 2020. "Stock returns and mutual fund flows in the korean financial markets: a system approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(33), pages 3588-3599, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aawewp:37317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaweeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.