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Exports, Growth and Causality: An Application of Co-integration and Error-correction Modelling

Author

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  • Ashfaque H. Khan

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Afia Malik

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Lubna Hasan

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

The relationship between export expansion and economic growth has been examined extensively during the last two decades in the context of the suitability of the alternative development strategies. The decade of the 1970s witnessed an emerging consensus in favour of export promotion as development strategy. Such a consensus was based on the following facts. First, higher export earnings working through alleviating foreign exchange constraints may enhance the ability of a developing country to import more industrial raw materials and capital goods, which, in turn, may expand its productive capacity. Secondly, the competition in export markets abroad may lead to the exploitation of economies of scale, greater capacity utilisation, efficient resource allocation, and an acceleration of technical progress in production. Thirdly, given the theoretical arguments mentioned above, the observed strong correlation between exports and economic growth was interpreted as empirical evidence in favour of export promotion as a development strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashfaque H. Khan & Afia Malik & Lubna Hasan, 1995. "Exports, Growth and Causality: An Application of Co-integration and Error-correction Modelling," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1001-1012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1001-1012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation, Financial Development and Economic Growth," Trade Working Papers 22204, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Fatima Subhani & Atif Yaseen & Bashir Ahemd Khan & Anees Ayyub, 2017. "Productivity and Externality Effects of Exports: An Application of FEDER Model in Pakistan and India," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 5(1), pages :36-60, June.
    3. Ejaz Ghani & Musleh ud Din & Afia Malik, 2017. "An Assessment of Pakistan's Export Performance and the Way Forward," Working Papers id:12173, eSocialSciences.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    5. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    6. Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Shaista Alam & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 715-723.
    7. Nadeem Ul Haque & Musleh-ud Din & Lubna Hasan, 2007. "Research at PIDE: Key Messages," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2007:2, December.
    8. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2012. "Modelling Trade, Investment, Growth and Liberalisation: Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 187-208.
    9. Muhammad Afzal & Sheikh Shoaib Ahmed & Muhammad Waseem Shahzad, 2019. "Impact of Merchandize and Services Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan," Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, Economics and Finance, Michael Laurence, vol. 1(2), pages 30-36.
    10. Musleh-Ud Din, 2004. "Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate Time-series Framework," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 105-124.
    11. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2004. "Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 563-581.
    12. Qazi Masood Ahmed & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt & Shaista Alam, 2000. "Economic Growth, Export, and External Debt Causality: The Case of Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 591-608.
    13. Aurangzeb, 2003. "Trade, Investment and Growth Nexus in Pakistan: An Application of Cointegration and Multivariate Causality Test," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 119-137, Jan-June.
    14. Saima Siddiqui & Sameena Zehra & Sadia Majeed & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2008. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: A Reinvestigation Using the Bounds Test," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 59-80, Jul-Dec.
    15. Muhammad AFZAl, 2012. "Do Structural Transformation And Trade Liberalisation Cause Economic Growth In Pakistan?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    16. Ashfaque H. Khan, 1998. "The Experience of Trade Liberalisation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 661-685.
    17. Mohammad Akbar & Zareen F. Naqvi, 2001. "External Market Conditions, Competitiveness, Diversification, and Pakistan’s Export Performance," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 871-884.
    18. Afia Malik & Ejaz Ghani & Musleh ud Din, 2017. "An Assessment of Pakistan’s Export Performance and the Way Forward," PIDE-Working Papers 2017:153, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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